2025 Halving Outlook: How to Avoid the Bear Trap and Capture AI Coin Alpha?

By: blockbeats|2025/01/30 12:00:04
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Original Article Title: Thoughts on Post-Halving Year 2025
Original Article Author: arndxt xo, plumenetwork Researcher
Original Article Translation: zhouzhou, BlockBeats

Editor's Note: This article analyzes the latest developments in Bitcoin and the crypto market. The early-year short trap led to a Bitcoin price correction, while macroeconomic factors such as inflation concerns and the rise in the US dollar index intensified market uncertainty. AI coins experienced a significant correction, but emerging AI coins such as ANON, AVA, PIPPIN showed strong performance. Meme coin FARTCOIN also attracted attention and, despite a pullback, has the potential to become a market leader. Coins like XRP benefited from Ripple's relationship with the US government, showing outstanding performance.

The following is the original content (slightly reorganized for readability):

Historically, February has been a strong month for Bitcoin performance in halving years.

2017 and 2021 Cycles: Bitcoin dropped in January and then resumed its upward trend in February. 2025 Prediction: If history repeats itself, we may see a similar uptrend this year. In the coming months, speculation about Bitcoin-related executive orders is brewing. Although unconfirmed, such events have historically had a significant impact on the market.

Industry Overview

2025 Halving Outlook: How to Avoid the Bear Trap and Capture AI Coin Alpha?

1. Infrastructure and Interoperability


Reduce network tribalism through cross-chain connections.


We are witnessing an acceleration in cross-chain development—projects like Superposition (Arbitrum L3) and Abstract (Hydra with integrated Stargate) are rolling out solutions to enhance the efficiency of asset transfers and data sharing. LayerZero is expanding its influence, allowing applications on Superposition to tap into liquidity from over 100 connected chains. Meanwhile, Arcana Network has partnered with Scroll to enable users to pay gas fees in stablecoins (USDC/USDT) on any chain, significantly streamlining the user onboarding process.


My take: This underscores the continued push for frictionless interoperability. Being able to seamlessly transfer assets and data across chains (L1 → L2 → L3) is rapidly becoming a fundamental requirement. Projects that can integrate user-friendly interfaces, gas fee abstractions, and universal bridging are poised to reduce the "network tribalism" that has historically hindered DeFi adoption. More standardization and potentially more professional L3 rollouts tailored for unique verticals (e.g., gaming, RWA, institutional DeFi) are expected.

2. Liquidity, Lending, and Real-World Assets


The Holy Grail of the Credit and Lending Ecosystem.

What Happened:

· Coinbase launched BTC-backed loans for U.S. users, providing a more mainstream audience with the ability to leverage their Bitcoin.

· Tradable integrated with ZKsync, bringing $1.7 billion worth of Real-World Asset (RWA) collateral to the network, showcasing how institutional-grade products are further penetrating DeFi.


· plumenetwork has tokenized over $4.5 billion in assets, achieved a $64 million TVL before the network even launched, and introduced a $25 million RWAfi Ecosystem Fund.


My Take: The blurred boundary between CeFi and DeFi is a prime example of this industry maturing. Coinbase's foray into crypto lending demonstrates centralized exchanges willing to offer products typically associated with DeFi platforms—potentially cannibalizing DeFi's direct user base but also validating on-chain lending as a key financial tool. Furthermore, RWA integration remains the "Holy Grail," linking traditional finance with on-chain liquidity. If this trend persists, DeFi could see stronger yields, deeper liquidity, and increased institutional trust, although regulatory oversight could also tighten.

3. Liquid Staking and Synthetic Bitcoin


Innovations in Staking Mechanisms.

What Happened:

· babylonlabs.io introduced YBTC, a 1:1 Bitcoin-backed liquid staking token, which has been integrated with pSTAKE.


· BrahmaFi launched the Onchain+ plan, bundling multi-chain strategies and an AI agent (ConsoleKit) for automated DeFi operations.


My Take: Liquid staking has proven to be a means of unlocking additional rewards for stakers without sacrificing liquidity. By tokenizing staked assets (such as BTC, ETH, etc.), DeFi participants can use them as collateral or trade freely. This "dual yield" approach—earning staking rewards while potentially gaining DeFi yields—is likely to continue accelerating. However, there are inherent risks: the more times assets are "liquidly staked," the deeper the system's complexity. Protocols must remain transparent and undergo thorough audits to prevent hidden leverage from destabilizing the system's integrity.

4. Ecosystem Expansion and Strategic Partnerships


Significant user adoption efforts and enterprise collaborations.

What Happened:
· Polygon Labs partnered with India's largest telecom company, Reliance Jio (with 450 million users), to integrate blockchain solutions into the Jio app.


· Ledger integrated Uniswap into Ledger Live Desktop, enhancing the user experience for hardware wallet enthusiasts.


Abstract prepared for its mainnet, hinting at a wave of new cross-chain products coming soon.

5. Airdrops, Incentives, and Liquidity Mining


User adoption battleground.
What Happened:


· Projects like Scroll, Quai Network, Fuel, Bubblemaps, and many others are launching airdrops or continuing reward seasons, each with its own community participation criteria.


· Protocols like Vertex (2.1M SEI tokens) and Derive (offering 2 million DRV tokens to liquidity providers) continue to incentivize user participation, while Nodepay and Solayer offer pre-claim processes or public sales with instant TGE distribution.


My Take: Airdrops have proven to be an effective means of paving the way for an initial user base, but they are also becoming a "must-have" competitive strategy for new protocols. With so many projects offering incentives, user fatigue could become an issue. The key for projects is to provide real utility rather than relying solely on "incentive chasing." Over time, protocols need to balance incentives with sustainable tokenomics. The ideal state is to attract new users through rewards while providing them with real product value to retain them.

Narrative Overview

BTC Price Trends and Macroeconomic Impacts

The first Monday of the year marked a significant short squeeze, with Bitcoin surging after the New York market opening, Coinbase trading at a premium, leading many to believe it was the start of a bull market cycle. However, this proved to be a false signal as BTC stalled the next day and saw a steep decline, dragging down other altcoins with it.

Key Macroeconomic Factors Driving Uncertainty

·Inflation Concern: The strong Labor Market data on January 10th (NFP Report) hinted at potential inflationary pressure, which could lead to a reduced expectation of rate cuts — a bearish signal for the stock market and cryptocurrency.

·US Dollar Index (DXY): Reached a new high of 110.

·10-Year Treasury Yield: Rose from 4.6% to 4.8% (YTD).

·S&P 500 Index: Retested pre-election prices.

AI Agent Coin: Correction and Opportunity

The AI Agent coins that have recently dominated market attention have experienced significant corrections:

·VIRTUAL: Plunged -57% from a peak of $52 billion. AI16Z: Dropped -63% from a peak of $25 billion.

·ZEREBRO: Fell -73% from a peak of $8.2 billion.

·FAI: Slid from a peak of $6.5 billion to $5 billion.

·AIXBT: Despite the market weakness, still near its all-time high.

·GOAT: Declined -55% but still shows weak performance.

Emerging Winners

New AI coins are starting to gain attention, including:

ANON: Rose from $20 million to $240 million.

AVA: Increased from $60 million to $300 million.

PIPPIN: Grew from $15 million to $320 million.

Meme Coins: FARTCOIN and Others

FARTCOIN

This meme coin, somewhat related to the AI narrative, experienced a -56% pullback but rebounded by +75% from its low point. It is considered a potential market leader, with speculation that its market cap could reach $50 billion or higher.

BUTTHOLE and LLM

BUTTHOLE: Peaked at a high of $140 million but then experienced a -70% downturn.

LLM: Linked to AI, once reached $150 million but later went through a -75% pullback.

XRP Leading the Token

XRP

Outperforming the market, it has risen by 6% year-to-date. Ripple's relationship with the upcoming U.S. government and CEO Brad Garlinghouse's connections to key political figures have fueled bullish sentiment.

Other strong performers in this category include:

HBAR

XLM

ADA

Other Significant Trends

Strong Performing Coins

SPX: Surpassed a $1 billion market cap, reaching $1.6 billion, but has now declined by -30%.

GIGA: Nearly hit $1 billion but faced resistance, dropping by -30%.

SUI: Reached a new all-time high ($54 billion FDV) and only dropped by -13%.

Newly Launched Coins

BIO: Launched as the first major DeSci protocol with a $30 billion FDV, but has now dropped by -55%.

GRASS: Showing strength after weeks of volatile trading.

USUAL: Controversy over USD0++ redemption changes led to a -66% drop from its all-time high.

Exercise Caution

FTM: Trading contracts delisted, potentially presenting a second chance but facing significant migration issues.

RUNE: Facing risks associated with ThorFi lending, reminiscent of LUNA.

Animal meme coins: POPCAT, WIF, and NEIRO are the worst-performing coins year-to-date, with POPCAT dropping by -73% from its all-time high.

Original Article Link

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China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk


Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:


To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:


  Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:


  I. Clarify the essential attributes of virtual currency, Real-World Assets tokenization, and related business activities


  (I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.


  The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.


  A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.


(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.


  Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.


  II. Sound Work Mechanism


  (III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.


  The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.


  (IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  III. Strengthened Risk Monitoring, Prevention, and Disposal


  (5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.


  (6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.


  (7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.


  (8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.


  (IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.


  (X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.


 (XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.


  (XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.


  IV. Strict Supervision of Domestic Entities Engaging in Overseas Business Activities


(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.


  (XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.


  (15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.


  V. Strengthen Organizational Implementation


  (16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  (17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.


  VI. Legal Responsibility


  (18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.


  (19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.


  This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.


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