Bitcoin and Gold Correlation at +0.50, Major Investors Avoid Stocks

The ninety-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold stands at +0.50, the highest level in years. The correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 has dropped to 0.30, the lowest point in a year. Major investors are buying Bitcoin and gold as a hedge against a declining dollar. The acceleration in correlation began after August 19, when the U.S. Treasury doubled its buybacks of long-term government debt to $4 billion per operation. Gold is trading around $4,443 per ounce, below the record high of $5,602 from January. Bitcoin is hovering around $80,000. The fifty-day moving average of Bitcoin is approaching the two-hundred-day average, which could indicate a 'golden cross', the first since November 2025. Historically, such signals have been followed by a rise of 45% to 60%. The Bitcoin price expectation for the fourth quarter is between $95,000 and $105,000, provided the price exceeds $83,000. The halving in April 2024 is more than two years behind us, and the cycle following that halving supports this expectation.

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