Bitcoin On-Chain Fund Flow Turns Positive for the First Time, Demand Strength Remains Low

Bitcoin's on-chain fund flow showed improvement in the latter half of August, achieving a relative net position change that rose to +0.10% on August 24, marking the first positive shift since May 28. By August 26, it further increased to +0.21%, ending nearly three months of net outflows. The 30-day apparent demand/new supply ratio for Bitcoin has been above 1 for six consecutive days, with the latest figure at 2.52, indicating that the 30-day apparent demand is approximately 2.5 times the new BTC issuance during the same period. This metric had dropped to -6.93 on August 2 and briefly rose to 3.16 on August 21. Nevertheless, the absolute strength of both indicators remains relatively low. Since 2024, the median for periods of positive realized market value has been +3.24%, while the current +0.21% is only at the lower end of the positive sample range of 3%-4%. The historical median for the apparent demand ratio above 1 is 7.65, and the current 2.52 is also within the lowest 10%. Analysts believe that the direction of fund flow has shifted from outflows to slight inflows, with demand surpassing new supply again, but a strong new demand cycle cannot yet be confirmed. Future observations are needed to determine whether the realized market value can remain positive and whether apparent demand can further expand.

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