Data: The number of BTC long-term holders' holdings has reached 16 million, setting a new historical high, while MVRV is close to a three-year low

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. released a report indicating that the MVRV ratio of long-term Bitcoin holders has compressed to 1.24, the lowest level in nearly three years. The cost basis for long-term holders has risen to $48,400, while the BTC price has fallen to $59,000, leaving an average profit of only 24% for long-term holders, with the gap to the cost basis narrowing to 19%.

Meanwhile, the holdings of long-term holders have reached an all-time high, approaching 16.1 million BTC, and the selling indicators remain low, indicating that holders are not selling during price declines but are continuously absorbing supply. The analyst noted that when the MVRV approaches 1, historical cycles typically come close to a bottom, but currently, it has not yet entered the green surrender zone. Stronger bottoming signals will require the MVRV to enter the "extremely low area" and for prices to remain above the cost basis. The main downside risk is if the price falls below the $48,400 cost basis and selling activity surges simultaneously, which could trigger surrender behavior from the most steadfast holders.