Deciphering Moonshot Listing Data: 50% Unavoidably Reverts to Zero, TRUMP Emerges as the Top Dog

By: blockbeats|2025/02/06 14:30:04
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Original Title: "Decoding Moonshot Listing Data: 50% Inevitably Zeroed, TRUMP Coin Emerges as Top Dog"
Original Author: ChandlerZ, Foresight News

Since its launch, Moonshot has quickly gained recognition in the market with its focus on the Meme coin ecosystem, and has even been praised by some industry insiders as the "Binance of Memes." Against the backdrop of a relatively low overall trading sentiment, the on-chain data of projects listed on Moonshot still provides important insights into price movements, market trends, and development progress, allowing us to better understand the Meme ecosystem.

In essence, Moonshot is a Meme trading platform built on the Solana blockchain, aiming to lower the barrier of entry for retail users into the crypto market through a streamlined registration and trading process. The platform supports multiple fiat on-ramps such as Apple Pay, credit cards, and PayPal, and facilitates fast and convenient asset withdrawals. During the Meme coin craze in the second half of 2024, Moonshot attracted users by quickly curating and listing popular tokens.

Deciphering Moonshot Listing Data: 50% Unavoidably Reverts to Zero, TRUMP Emerges as the Top Dog

According to Dune Analytics, Moonshot's trading volume and transaction fees in 2024 showed a relatively stable development, with daily trading volumes around tens of millions of dollars and daily active traders ranging from 3,500 to 4,900. The turning point in this state came on January 18, 2025, when former U.S. President Trump launched his personal Meme coin TRUMP, which was subsequently listed on Moonshot. Trump's official tweet promoting the TRUMP token ignited a new wave of hype.

Based on official data, within 12 hours, Moonshot was recommended on TRUMP's official website as a purchase method, processing nearly $400 million in trading volume, breaking the fiat on-ramp record, and attracting over 200,000 new users.

With the decline of TRUMP and the overall market, Meme coins experienced widespread pullbacks and price fluctuations. What was Moonshot's wealth creation effect? Through an in-depth analysis of the performance of tokens listed on Moonshot in the past three months, we aim to explore its position as an emerging trading platform and the market conditions behind this effect.

March Listing: 116 Tokens, 68 Nearing Zero, One-Third Peaks Upon Listing

In this article, we have selected the tokens listed on the Moonshot platform between November 2024 and January 2025 as the research sample. The data is based on the listing time records provided by the "Moonshot Listings" account.

The overall data is as follows:

The records from "Moonshot Listings" show that during these three months, the number of tokens listed on Moonshot was 116, with 54 listed in November 2024, 38 in December, and a total of 24 listed in January 2025.

Further analysis reveals that out of the 116 listed tokens in the current market environment, only 17 are currently priced higher than their listing price, accounting for less than 15%. The vast majority of projects are currently in a downtrend, with over 85% of projects experiencing a price decline.

Due to the meme-like nature of many projects nearing zero, we also attempted to objectively calculate this data. If we define projects that have dropped by more than 90% from their peak price after listing as "nearing zero" projects, based on the statistical data, out of the 116 tokens we analyzed, 46 projects in November met this criterion, 17 in December, and 5 in January 2025, totaling 68 projects, accounting for over 58.6%. This number intuitively reflects that most tokens quickly lost market support after the initial enthusiasm.

Additionally, we found that according to the criterion of projects whose highest price increase post-listing is less than 20%, classified as "peaking upon listing," the numbers in the three statistical periods were 12, 13, and 8 projects, totaling 33 projects. This means that nearly one-third of the projects had already approached their all-time highs when they first appeared on Moonshot, but due to a lack of sustained fundamental support or a weakening market confidence, they quickly lost their potential for further gains.

40% of Tokens Double After Listing, TRUMP Dominates Funding

Approximately 40% of tokens have at least doubled in price after listing, indicating that the market showed strong enthusiasm and support for some projects early on. From the data, the top ten projects in terms of current price increase and post-listing increase to some extent exhibit overlapping trends, with some tokens holding a leading position between their all-time high and current performance. Due to specific political factors, TRUMP undoubtedly holds absolute dominance.

PNUT and 360noscope420blazeit (MLG) have achieved gains of 4797.96% and 2555.56%, respectively, while degenai, CHILLGUY, and several other projects have also surpassed the 20x gain threshold. These data indicate that, driven by extreme market sentiment and short-term speculation, some tokens have temporarily attracted extraordinary market attention and speculative capital, leading to significant price surges.

However, when compared to their all-time highs post-launch, the current price surges of the top ten projects appear relatively subdued. Currently, TRUMP has increased by 1940.70%, significantly lower than its previous peak; similarly, MLG and AI Rig Complex (ARC) have seen declines of 1034.44% and 661.32%, respectively, while the tenth-ranked Moby AI has only risen by 26.54%. This disparity reflects that although some projects have experienced explosive growth, with market sentiment becoming more rational and profit-taking widespread, the price surges of the vast majority of projects have significantly narrowed.

These two sets of data complement each other, painting a picture: in the short term, some projects have experienced explosive price surges due to market speculation, but as the market enthusiasm cools and profit-taking takes effect, very few projects can sustain continuous growth. This also reveals the speculative nature and intense price volatility in the current Meme coin market, while also exposing that after the initial frenzy, most projects are facing a harsh reality of value regression and risk reassessment.

“Peak-to-Trough” is Actually Resilient

Looking at the data on pullbacks from the peak, excluding the special case of Coinbase Wrapped BTC, those projects with pullbacks around 50% are actually among the less severely affected.

Take spinning cat (OIIAOIIA) as an example, with a pullback of about 46.94%, which can be seen as relatively mild in the context of a correction from the high. Subsequent projects like ARC, SNAI, MLG, FRIC, Butthole, and Pippin have peak-to-trough pullback percentages close to or exceeding 50%. This indicates that within the entire sample, only those few projects with pullbacks around 50% can still be considered to have fallen relatively “less,” while the majority of projects have experienced more significant price retracements.

If we stratify by market capitalization, the current high market cap Meme coin group consists of only 9 projects, with an average price increase of 440.67% and an average peak-to-trough drawdown of 60.74%. In contrast, the mid-cap group (28 projects), small-cap group (42 projects), and projects with a market cap below 1 million (37 projects) present a completely different picture. Low-cap projects are more affected by speculative sentiment and market volatility, with most of them already in a "rug pull" state.

In summary, we can see that the wealth creation effect demonstrated by this platform in the Meme field is both dramatic and exposes its inherent high-risk nature. As an emerging trading platform focused on Meme coins, Moonshot's listing effect has indeed generated amazing short-term returns for individual projects (such as TRUMP) in certain extreme market conditions, attracting a large influx of speculative capital. However, looking at the overall data, out of 116 listed projects, over 85% of them have experienced significant declines, with low-cap and sub-million-dollar market cap tokens facing a fate of almost zeroing out. The listing effect has not been able to establish widespread and enduring value support in the current market environment.

Memes themselves, as assets primarily driven by entertainment and trends, exhibit extreme and rapid price fluctuations. The hype comes fast, fades fast, and the speed of going to zero is jaw-dropping. This extreme volatility and fragility are core features of the Meme asset market, where market sentiment can easily be driven to a peak by momentary hype. However, after the hype subsides, funds quickly flow out, and the price correction or even zeroing out speed far exceeds expectations.

It can only be said that while Moonshot platform's listing effect has brought substantial returns to "some" investors, it has also sounded the alarm for market participants. In this market characterized by quick gains, speculative enthusiasm is often short-lived. Risk management and rational investment are the only way to navigate this high-risk domain.

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China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk


Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:


To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:


  Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:


  I. Clarify the essential attributes of virtual currency, Real-World Assets tokenization, and related business activities


  (I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.


  The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.


  A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.


(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.


  Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.


  II. Sound Work Mechanism


  (III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.


  The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.


  (IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  III. Strengthened Risk Monitoring, Prevention, and Disposal


  (5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.


  (6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.


  (7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.


  (8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.


  (IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.


  (X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.


 (XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.


  (XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.


  IV. Strict Supervision of Domestic Entities Engaging in Overseas Business Activities


(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.


  (XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.


  (15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.


  V. Strengthen Organizational Implementation


  (16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  (17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.


  VI. Legal Responsibility


  (18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.


  (19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.


  This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.


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