"Inflation slowdown alone was insufficient"…Alea Research diagnoses Bitcoin and Ethereum in the 'real demand verification' phase

In June, the slowdown in U.S. inflation effectively eliminated the possibility of a rate hike in July, but the investment sentiment for risk assets has become even more cautious. Alea Research analyzed in a recent report that the simultaneous emergence of soaring oil prices, semiconductor valuation pressures, and signs of consumer slowdown has prevented the crypto market, including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), from establishing a clear direction.

The report was released on July 19, 2026. The key point is that the market has moved beyond merely assessing the existence of demand to verifying whether the ongoing large-scale capital investments and expenditures can be justified by actual returns. This indicates that the U.S. stock market, commodities, and the crypto market are being reassessed under the same macroeconomic variables.

In fact, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June fell by 0.4% compared to the previous month, and the year-on-year increase rate slowed to 3.5%. Core inflation decreased to 2.6% year-on-year and remained stable compared to the previous month. The Producer Price Index (PPI) also dropped by 0.3% from the previous month. Following the release of these figures, the probability of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in July fell to around 4%. However, since a significant portion of the inflation slowdown was attributed to falling energy prices, the market did not perceive this as a 'complete' stabilization of inflation.

The Federal Reserve's Beige Book also supported this caution. Consumers were seeking cheaper alternatives, companies were expressing margin pressures due to rising costs, and the burden of loan repayments was increasing. While consumption and employment indicators have not yet collapsed sharply, signs of fatigue have become evident. Alea Research noted that while the likelihood of the Fed increasing the intensity of tightening in the immediate term has decreased, conflicts in the Middle East and expanded AI infrastructure investments could exert new inflationary pressures.

Looking at cross-asset flows, this tension becomes clearer. International oil prices (WTI) surged by 15.5% in one week, while the semiconductor index (SOXX) plummeted by 10.2%. The QQQ, which tracks the Nasdaq 100, fell by 4.2%, and the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) dropped by 1.5%. In contrast, Bitcoin (BTC) remained essentially flat, while Ethereum (ETH) rose by 2.8%. This indicates that risk assets did not move in unison; rather, differentiation occurred under different logics for each asset class.

Bitcoin (BTC) struggled to find direction around $64,000 despite the CPI slowdown and easing rate burdens. Although the market absorbed ETF-related volatility and some large sell orders, there has not yet been a strong new buying force to offset this. In the short term, $65,000 has been suggested as the baseline for a rebound, while $60,000 is the first tactical support level. The fact that Bitcoin (BTC) has not surged strongly despite easing rate hike concerns is evidence that real demand and positioning issues have become more important than macro liquidity.

Ethereum (ETH) performed relatively well. The influx of ETF funds and some financial demand supported buying momentum, showing strength compared to Bitcoin (BTC). However, it remains to be seen whether this trend will lead to a broader circulation of funds in the market. The report stated that the strength of ETH/BTC can only be interpreted as a structural fund movement when it appears alongside a broad expansion of ETF setups. Conversely, if only limited financial entities continue to buy, the current rise may be a narrow rebound.

Solana (SOL) fell by 3.6% on the day despite positive news from the collaboration between Japan's SBI Group and the Solana Foundation. This shows that in the current market environment, simple partnership announcements are insufficient to support prices. Narratives around yen-based stablecoins, tokenized assets, institutional liquidity, and AI agent payment infrastructure are certainly attractive, but ultimately, the market is shifting its evaluation criteria to measurable user activity and profitability.

The same trend was observed in the DeFi and tokenization sectors. AAVE approached an annualized fee of $1 billion and exceeded $100 million in revenue, continuing to improve its fundamentals. New app strategies and buyback restructuring are raising expectations for long-term value reassessment. In contrast, despite the expansion of real-world assets (RWA), hype has continued to see revenue declines, highlighting valuation pressures. While the temperature has shown relative strength through collaborations with SBI, DTCC, and others, the market ultimately considers 'execution capability' and 'profit attribution' as the most critical judgment criteria.

The most symbolic change in the global financial market this week was the retreat of the "unconditional optimism for AI investments." TSMC and ASML reported solid demand and strong performance, yet their stock prices could not escape weakness. This indicates that investors are no longer satisfied with just order backlogs or revenue growth; they have begun to reflect large-scale facility expansions, power costs, financing burdens, and potential oversupply risks in the future. In particular, the sharp declines in the Korean stock market and memory-related stocks illustrate how quickly AI beneficiaries can shift from overheating to correction.

In the commodities market, rising oil prices were the strongest variable. Amid renewed tensions in the Middle East and uncertainties in maritime transport, WTI rose to around $82. However, it is interpreted that demand itself has not explosively increased, and whether the short-term surge will lead to a long-term trend remains uncertain. Gold and silver showed weakness, and copper was also evaluated as difficult to read as a simple signal of economic recovery amid China's growth slowdown and industrial structural changes.

Ultimately, the message of this report is clear. The slowdown in June inflation provided the market with a brief respite, but it alone could not justify a strong resurgence of risk assets. The crypto market, including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), stands before more challenging questions regarding real demand, revenue structures, and the sustainability of capital inflows, rather than liquidity expectations. Alea Research diagnosed that the current market's core, which spans semiconductors, AI, energy, and crypto, is not about 'growth' itself but rather about verifying 'whether the price paid for that growth is justified.'

This content is provided for general informational purposes only and doesn't constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Any events, rewards, online promotions, or related information mentioned herein should not be considered a recommendation, solicitation, or invitation to purchase, sell, trade, or otherwise deal in any crypto assets. Crypto assets are highly volatile and may result in loss. The availability of WEEX services, products, and related events may vary by region. You are responsible for ensuring that your participation is in accordance with applicable local laws and regulations.