Macro Outlook for Next Week: US-Iran Sanctions, Jackson Hole, PCE, and Nvidia Earnings as Four Key Variables, Gold Aiming for $4,700

On August 22, the global market will face multiple risk events next week, including the escalation of US-Iran sanctions, Federal Reserve Chairman Waller's first appearance at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference, the release of the US July PCE inflation data, and Nvidia's earnings report, which may become core variables affecting the trend of risk assets.

This week, the surge in US long-term bond yields has raised market concerns. After the Treasury expanded the scale of long-term US Treasury buybacks, pressure in the bond market has eased somewhat, but investors remain focused on the US fiscal deficit, inflation, and developments in the Middle East.

Driven by concerns over the sustainability of US debt, a weaker dollar, and the Treasury's expanded buyback plan, spot gold broke through $4,600 per ounce this week, marking its third consecutive week of gains, and reached a high near $4,632 on Friday. Analysts believe that if gold effectively breaks through $4,600, the next target may point to $4,680 or even $4,700.

Next week, US-Iran relations will become the primary focus of the market. US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that the Trump administration will announce new sanctions against Iran on Monday. Trump previously warned that any country providing support to Iran could face economic consequences. Meanwhile, transportation activities in the Strait of Hormuz continue to be hindered, and risks to energy supply are driving oil prices higher.

Regarding the Federal Reserve, the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference will be held from August 27 to 29, with Federal Reserve Chairman Waller scheduled to deliver his first speech on August 28. The market is watching to see if he will signal the future path of interest rates and whether he can alleviate recent pressures in the US bond market.

Currently, the market expects a decrease in the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, and traders will closely observe Waller's statements on the 2% inflation target, long-term interest rates, and the monetary policy framework.

In terms of economic data, the US July core PCE price index will be released next week, which is a key inflation indicator closely monitored by the Federal Reserve. The market expects a month-on-month increase of 0.2% in core PCE; if the data exceeds expectations, it may weaken rate cut expectations and put pressure on gold; if it falls below expectations, it may further drive up precious metals.

Additionally, the revised value of US second-quarter GDP, durable goods orders, consumer confidence index, and non-farm payroll benchmark revision data will also be released next week.

On the corporate side, Nvidia's earnings report will become the focus of the US stock market. Recently, tech stocks have come under pressure, with the Nasdaq index falling about 2% this week and the semiconductor sector declining over 4%. The market will pay attention to Nvidia's statements on the sustainability of AI infrastructure investments, progress on the Rubin chip, and the situation of its business in China.

Analysts believe that if Nvidia's performance continues to strengthen AI growth expectations, it could become an important catalyst for pushing the S&P 500 index towards 8,000 points; if the performance or guidance falls short of expectations, it may exacerbate the adjustment pressure on tech stocks.