MOVE Index Reaches Highest Level Since March, Bitcoin Volatility Remains Low

The MOVE Index, which reflects the expected volatility of U.S. Treasury bonds, rose from 80 on Tuesday to 104 on Thursday, marking its highest level since March. The increase is driven by rising energy prices and higher bond yields, which have intensified inflationary concerns. At the same time, the volatility indicators for Bitcoin and the S&P 500 remain low: the 30-day implied volatility for Bitcoin is around 37 points, while the Cboe VIX index for the S&P 500 is around 14. This indicates a lack of heightened demand for protection against sharp movements in these markets. The correlation between MOVE and VIX has turned negative for the first time since April 2024, suggesting that nervousness in the bond market has not spilled over into the stock market. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds reached 5.2% before falling to 5.163%. Despite a 21% rise in the S&P 500 since March, bond market participants are willing to pay more for protection against interest rate fluctuations, indicating a concentration of anxiety in the debt segment.

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