Perpetual Futures Before Listing Show 4-5% Difference from Initial Trading Price

The price of on-chain perpetual futures based on pre-listing companies has been suggested as a potential evaluation metric just before an Initial Public Offering (IPO). In the cases of SpaceX and Changxin Memory, the difference between the perpetual futures price before listing and the actual initial trading price was found to be 4.9% and 4.6%, respectively. According to a report by CoinGecko, the perpetual futures market before listing provides price discovery and market sentiment prior to traditional IPOs. The perpetual futures price for SpaceX traded between $158 and $170, while the Nasdaq's initial trading price was recorded at $150.05. A similar pattern was observed in the case of Changxin Memory. Perpetual futures are not products that trade actual stocks; rather, they are derivative contracts that reflect the valuation of unlisted companies and expectations of their listing. This product can be traded 24/7, allowing global investors to reflect their buying and selling expectations in the price even before the IPO market opens. However, the price of perpetual futures does not always accurately reflect the actual stock value, and discrepancies can arise depending on the liquidity and contract structure of each exchange. This analysis compares the two cases of SpaceX and Changxin Memory, and it cannot be concluded that the same price convergence occurs for all unlisted companies.

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