Raoul Pal: Global liquidity is highly correlated with BTC, and the market is historically oversold
Raoul Pal posted on the X platform that, despite the frustration surrounding cryptocurrencies and the purely technical analysts believing the market has ended, he disagrees. Global liquidity is the most important macro factor in history, with a correlation of 90% with BTC since 2012 and a correlation of 97% with NDX. Its annual growth rate is about 10%, with no signs of slowing down.
GMI's financial condition leads global liquidity by about 6 months and remains accommodative. Overall liquidity in the U.S. has been suppressed during the standstill, becoming a bearish range. This indicator leads cryptocurrencies by about 3 months and has begun to accelerate since the low point three months ago. The business cycle is a key driver of earnings and risk, showing an accelerating trend.
eSLR is the mechanism by which banks enhance liquidity through credit and absorbing government bond issuance. This liquidity is also on the rise and will further accelerate. Tax refunds entering bank balance sheets enhance the tendency for credit creation, thereby increasing liquidity. The U.S. will further cut interest rates, increasing disposable income and thereby raising risk appetite.
The CLARITY Act is expected to pass, driving funds into the market. Many banks and asset management firms are eager to use this technology, and this act will address that. Stablecoins are accelerating in development, with issuance increasing by 50% last year and still accelerating. Trading volumes have reached trillions of dollars and continue to rise.
The U.S. government's support for cryptocurrencies has reached an all-time high. Eventually, agencies will be put in place, greatly accelerating market development and creating a whole new total addressable market. The crypto market remains in a state of panic, with most indicators showing it is at one of the most oversold stages in history.
The weekly DeMark indicator will provide very solid support in two weeks (this indicator is now available on Trading View). The daily DeMark indicator is also in an overlapping state. Any weakness that appears will complete the daily and weekly indicators, indicating the potential for a full trend reversal. The risk factor lies in how long oil prices remain high. The next two weeks are a key focus period. He believes the aforementioned factors will yield positive results, with expectations for further upward movement.
You may also like

Cursor, why did you get on Musk's spaceship?

Morning Report | DeepSeek completes over $7 billion in financing, with a valuation exceeding $50 billion; Musk's personal wealth has surpassed the total market value of Bitcoin

SharpLink CEO: How to understand that Ethereum developers have just surpassed 1 million?

Morning Report | MiCA grace period expires on July 1; Kalshi's trading volume in the first week of the World Cup breaks $5.1 billion, setting a record

The foundation of SpaceX's trillion-dollar valuation: Who is dividing Musk's annual capital expenditure of tens of billions?

How to exit after asset tokenization?

The stablecoin positioning battle escalates: When compliance is just a ticket to entry, will USD1 become the biggest winner?

A16Z: The sun bears witness, SpaceX is worth 7.5 trillion

Mergers and acquisitions in the cryptocurrency market are exceptionally active

Concerns Behind the Binance Customer Service Controversy

SpaceX Stock Prediction After the IPO: Can SPCX Reach $200 Before QQQ Inclusion?

Congratulations to Carl Moon on His Historic Ferrari Challenge Le Mans Podium Triumph
Crypto influencer and racing enthusiast Carl Moon finished third in the Ferrari Challenge Le Mans Coppa Shell class, marking his best result of the year. As his racing partner and sponsor, WEEX celebrates this remarkable achievement and continues to lead crypto’s journey beyond boundaries, uniting the innovation of digital assets with the passion of motorsport.

Can the CLARITY Act Become Law by July 4? Everything You Need to Know About the Final Battle

France vs Senegal World Cup 2026: Mbappe’s New Era Begins Against a Historic Rival

What is the connection between Huang Zheng of Pinduoduo and blockchain?

Morning Report | Prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket jointly sue Kentucky over 14.25% trading tax; Bridgewater founder discusses decision-making in the AI era: principled thinking should run parallel to AI, human insight remains irre...

If the AI bubble has already burst, who will truly remain?






