Sam Altman's Latest Article: Fully Committed to AI Agent, Believing It Will Reshape the World Economy

By: blockbeats|2025/02/10 14:45:03
0
Share
copy
Original Article Title: Three Observations
Original Article Author: Sam Altman
Original Article Compilation, Editing: AIGC Open Community

At 5 am this morning, Sam Altman, Co-Founder and CEO of OpenAI, published a deep article titled "Three Observations" on his personal blog.

The article mainly puts forward 3 observations about the AI world: the intelligence level of an AI model is roughly equal to the logarithm of the resources used to train and run it;

The cost of using AI at a specific level roughly decreases by a factor of 10 every 12 months, and lower prices lead to more usage; the societal and economic value created by linearly increasing intelligence is super-exponentially growing.

The article also emphasizes that OpenAI is fully deploying AI Agents, these thousands of intelligent entities will eventually be widely used, becoming virtual colleagues in various business scenarios. The performance of junior Agents may be somewhat lacking, but they will still permeate various fields reshaping the world economy.

Sam Altman's Latest Article: Fully Committed to AI Agent, Believing It Will Reshape the World Economy

The following is the original content:

Our mission is to ensure that General AI (AGI) can benefit all of humanity.

The beginnings of systems pointing towards AGI are already visible; therefore, we feel it is necessary to understand the moment we are in. AGI is a somewhat ambiguous term, but generally, we define it as a system capable of solving increasingly complex problems at a human level across numerous domains.

Humans are tool builders, inherently driven by exploration and creation, making the world progressively better. Each generation progresses on the discoveries of its predecessors, creating more powerful tools—electricity, transistors, computers, the internet, and the upcoming AGI.

In a sense, AGI is just another tool in the progression ladder collectively built by humans. But in another sense, the emergence of AGI marks a whole new beginning, making it hard not to feel like "this time it really is different." The economic growth in front of us looks astounding, and we can even envision a world that can cure all diseases, give people more time with family, and unleash creativity to its fullest.

Perhaps within a decade, everyone on Earth will have capabilities exceeding those of today's most influential people.

We continue to witness rapid progress in AI development. Here are three observations about the AI economy:

1. The intelligence level of an AI model is roughly equal to the logarithm of the resources used to train and run it. These resources mainly include training computational power, data, and inference computational power. It seems that as long as you are willing to invest any amount of funds, you can achieve continuous and predictable returns. The law of the scale of these returns is accurate across multiple orders of magnitude.

2. The cost of using AI at a certain level decreases by approximately 10 times every 12 months, and lower prices lead to more usage. You can see this in the token cost change from early 2023's GPT-4 to mid-2024's GPT-4o, where the price per token decreased by about 150 times over this year and a half.

Moore's Law doubled performance every 18 months, changing the world; however, the rate at which AI costs are dropping is even more incredible.

3. The socioeconomic value created by linear growth in intelligence is super-exponentially increasing. This result suggests that there is no immediate reason to expect that investment in exponential growth will stop in the near term.

If these three observations continue to hold true, their impact on society will be enormous.

We are now introducing AI Agents that will eventually be widely used like virtual colleagues.

Let's take the example of a software engineering Agent, which we consider particularly important. Imagine that this Agent can eventually perform tasks most senior company software engineers with several years of experience can accomplish (tasks that can take up to several days). It may not come up with the greatest new ideas, requires significant human supervision and guidance, and excels in some aspects while may perform poorly in others.

But still, it can be envisioned as a real yet relatively junior virtual colleague. Now imagine having 1000 of such Agents. Or 1 million. Then imagine having such Agents in every knowledge work domain.

In a sense, AI may be economically similar to the transistor—a significant scientific discovery that can be massively scaled and permeate into every corner of the economy. We may not focus too much on transistors or transistor companies, but we will expect our computers, TVs, cars, toys, etc., to perform miraculous feats.

The world will not change overnight, it never has. In the short term, life will still be largely the same, with people in 2025 spending most of their time much like they did in 2024. We will still fall in love, start families, argue online, go hiking, etc.

But the future will come at us in an undeniable way, with massive long-term societal and economic changes. We will find new things to do, new ways to help each other, and new forms of competition, but these may be very different from today's jobs.

Autonomy, volition, and determination may become extremely important. Making the right decisions about what to do and how to navigate a changing world will be of immense value; resilience and adaptability will be skills worth cultivating. AGI will be the most potent lever of human intent, enabling individuals to have a greater impact than ever before, rather than a lesser one.

We expect the impact of AGI to be uneven. While some industries might see little change, scientific progress may accelerate beyond today, with this AGI impact outweighing everything else.

The prices of many goods may ultimately plummet (currently, cognitive and energy costs limit many things), while luxury goods and some inherently scarce resources (like land) may see more dramatic price increases.

From a technological standpoint, the path forward seems fairly clear. However, public policy and collective opinion are critical in how AGI is integrated into society. One reason we're launching products early is to give society and tech time to co-evolve.

AI will permeate every sector of the economy and society, with everything expected to become smarter. Many anticipate the need to afford people more control over tech than ever before, including more open sourcing, and accepting the need to balance security with personal empowerment.

While we never want to act recklessly, and there may be some unwelcome significant decisions and constraints related to AGI safety, directionally, as we get closer to AGI, we believe a trend toward more individual empowerment is critical. Another possible road we can see is AI being used by authoritarian governments to control their populations through extensive surveillance and autonomy deprivation.

Ensuring broad distribution of the benefits of AGI is crucial. Historical impacts of technological progress suggest that most of the metrics we care about (health outcomes, economic prosperity, etc.) tend to improve on average and in the long run, but increasing equality does not seem to be technology-driven, and achieving this properly may require new ideas.

In particular, the power balance between capital and labor may be disrupted, which may require early intervention. We are open to some seemingly strange ideas, such as allocating a certain "computational budget" to every person on Earth so they can harness significant AI capabilities. However, we can also see many ways to achieve the desired effects through continuously lowering the cost of intelligence.

By 2035, everyone should be able to access intelligence capabilities equivalent to the total intelligence of all people in 2025; everyone should be able to access unlimited wisdom and leverage it in any way they can imagine. Today, many talented individuals around the world do not have sufficient resources to fully express themselves. If we can change this, the world will create tremendous value, bringing enormous benefits to all of us.

Original Post Link

You may also like

Token Cannot Compound, Where Is the Real Investment Opportunity?

The next chapter in the crypto industry will undoubtedly be written by Crypto-empowered Stocks.

February 6th Market Key Intelligence, How Much Did You Miss?

1. On-chain Flows: $508.2M USD inflow to Ethereum today; $390.8M USD outflow from Arbitrum 2. Biggest Gainers/Losers: $HBTC, $AIO 3. Top News: Current Bitcoin weekly RSI oversold signal comparable to June 2022

China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk


Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:


To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:


  Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:


  I. Clarify the essential attributes of virtual currency, Real-World Assets tokenization, and related business activities


  (I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.


  The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.


  A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.


(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.


  Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.


  II. Sound Work Mechanism


  (III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.


  The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.


  (IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  III. Strengthened Risk Monitoring, Prevention, and Disposal


  (5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.


  (6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.


  (7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.


  (8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.


  (IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.


  (X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.


 (XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.


  (XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.


  IV. Strict Supervision of Domestic Entities Engaging in Overseas Business Activities


(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.


  (XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.


  (15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.


  V. Strengthen Organizational Implementation


  (16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  (17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.


  VI. Legal Responsibility


  (18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.


  (19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.


  This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.


Former Partner's Perspective on Multicoin: Kyle's Exit, But the Game He Left Behind Just Getting Started

Kyle knew his game, so he decided to focus on playing the game he was good at and interested in.

Why Bitcoin Is Falling Now: The Real Reasons Behind BTC's Crash & WEEX's Smart Profit Playbook

Bitcoin's ongoing crash explained: Discover the 5 hidden triggers behind BTC's plunge & how WEEX's Auto Earn and Trade to Earn strategies help traders profit from crypto market volatility.

Wall Street's Hottest Trades See Exodus

This time there is no single triggering factor, but rather market anxiety about asset valuation, with many already skeptical of these valuations being too high, leading to investors choosing to retreat almost simultaneously.

Popular coins

Latest Crypto News

Read more