Serenity: Surge in AI Optical Communication Demand, Laser and Photon Supply Chain Shortages May Last for Years

On August 19, Serenity announced that as AI infrastructure development accelerates, the optical communication industry is facing a severe supply-demand imbalance. The demand for key components such as lasers, TIAs, and DSPs continues to exceed supply capabilities, and the photonics industry may enter a supercycle similar to that of the storage industry. Recent performances from optical communication companies like LITE, MTSI, and AAOI show that the demand for optical modules driven by AI is rapidly increasing, leading to noticeable tension in the related supply chain. At the Elazr investor meeting, the company's general manager stated that optical supply still lags far behind market demand, and shortages in the AI optical communication supply chain are expected to persist for the next several years. Currently, the entire supply chain is in a state of shortage, with supply capabilities unable to meet market demand. Shortages exist not only in laser chips but also across multiple AI infrastructure segments, including PCBs, substrates, and packaging. Serenity believes that the visibility of demand in the AI industry extends into the coming years, while the supply chain continues to be constrained by capacity bottlenecks. The photonics industry may replicate the previous supercycle of the storage industry, potentially lasting until 2027 or even longer.

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