Sugar Prices Weighed Down by an Improving Supply Outlook
By: barchartnews|2025/05/03 03:00:03
0
Share
July NY world sugar #11 (SBN25) Friday closed up +0.04 (+0.23%), and August London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ25) closed down -4.10 (-0.83%).Sugar prices on Friday extended their month-long selloff, with July NY sugar posting a 3-3/4 year nearest-futures low and London sugar posting a 2-week low. However, sugar prices recovered from their worst levels Friday, with NY sugar climbing into positive territory as a weaker dollar (DXY00) sparked short covering in sugar futures.The outlook for higher Brazil sugar production is undercutting prices. On Wednesday, Unica reported that Brazil Center-South sugar production for the first half of April rose +1.3% y/y to 731,000 MT. Wednesday's report from Unica is the first report for the 2025/26 season. On Tuesday, Conab forecast Brazil's 2025/26 Brazil sugar production would climb +4.0% y/y to 45.875 MMT. On Thursday, Bloomberg reported that Louis Dreyfus was the only trader to deliver raw sugar to settle the NY May sugar futures that expired on Wednesday. About 1.5 MMT of sugar was delivered to settle the May futures contract, the fifth-largest for the contract in 5 years, according to StoneX. The large delivery signals weak sugar demand.Signs of larger global sugar output are negative for prices. Last Wednesday, the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production would climb +2.3% y/y to 44.7 MMT from 43.7 MMT in the previous season. The outlook for abundant rain in India that leads to a bumper sugar crop is undercutting sugar prices. On April 15, India's Ministry of Earth Sciences projected an above-normal monsoon this year, with total rainfall forecast to be 105% of the long-term average. India's monsoon season runs from June through September. Also, on the negative side, consultant Datagro on March 12 projected that 2025/26 Brazil Center-South sugar production would climb +6% y/y to 42.4 MMT. In addition, Green Pool Commodity Specialists on February 5 projected that the worldwide sugar market will shift to a surplus of +2.7 MMT in the 2025/26 crop year from its estimate of a deficit of -3.7 MMT in 2024/25.In a bearish factor, the Indian government said on January 20 that it would allow its sugar mills to export 1 MMT of sugar this season, easing the restrictions placed on sugar exports in 2023. India has restricted sugar exports since October 2023 to maintain adequate domestic supplies. India allowed mills to export only 6.1 MMT of sugar during the 2022/23 season to September 30 after allowing exports of a record 11.1 MMT in the previous season. However, the ISMA projects that India's 2024/25 sugar production will fall -17.5% y/y to a 5-year low of 26.4 MMT. Also, Indian Food Secretary Chopra said on Thursday that India's 2024/25 sugar exports may only total 800,000 MT, below earlier expectations of 1 MMT.The outlook for higher sugar production in Thailand is bearish for sugar prices. Last Friday, Thailand's Office of the Cane and Sugar Board reported that Thailand's 2024/25 sugar production rose +14% y/y to 10.00 MMT. Thailand is the world's third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest sugar exporter.Sugar prices have carryover support from April 17 when the Indian Sugar and Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) reported that India's sugar production from Oct 1-Apr 15 was 25.5 MMT, down -18% from the same period last year.Signs of lower global sugar production are supportive of prices. Unica reported on April 14 that the cumulative 2024/25 Brazil Center-South sugar output through March fell by 5.3% y/y to 40.169 MMT. On March 12, the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association cut its 2024/25 India sugar production forecast to 26.4 MMT from a January forecast of 27.27 MMT, citing lower cane yields. Meanwhile, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) on March 6 raised its 2024/25 global sugar deficit forecast to -4.88 MMT from a November forecast of -2.51 MMT, showing a tightening market from the 2023/24 global sugar surplus of 1.31 MMT. The ISO also cut its 2024/25 global sugar production forecast to 175.5 MMT from a November forecast of 179.1 MMT. Drought and excessive heat last year caused fires in Brazil that damaged sugar crops in Brazil's top sugar-producing state of Sao Paulo. Green Pool Commodity Specialists noted that as much as 5 MMT of sugar cane may have been lost due to the fires. Last Thursday, Conab, Brazil's government crop forecasting agency, projected 2024/25 Brazil sugar production to fall -3.4% y/y to 44.118 MMT, citing lower sugarcane yields due to drought and excessive heat. The USDA, in its bi-annual report released November 21, projected that global 2024/25 sugar production would climb +1.5% y/y to a record 186.619 MMT and that global 2024/25 human sugar consumption would increase +1.2% y/y to a record 179.63 MMT. The USDA also forecasted that 2024/25 global sugar ending stocks would decline -6.1% y/y to 45.427 MMT. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
You may also like

Polymarket vs. Kalshi: The Full Meme War Timeline
The topic itself has become a growth engine, and this "flame war" may be their most effective business strategy.

Consensus Check: What Consensus Was Born at the 2026 First Conference?
Just concluded in Hong Kong, Consensus HK 2026 has set the stage for a new narrative this year.

Resigned in Less Than a Year of Taking Office, Why Did Yet Another Key Figure at the Ethereum Foundation Depart?
The Ethereum Foundation once again finds itself at the crossroads of personnel turmoil.

Russian-Ukrainian War Prediction Market Analysis Report
By analyzing transaction patterns, validate the predictive market as a harbinger of truth in the new media order

Ethereum Foundation Executive Director Resigns, Coinbase Rating Downgrade: What's the Overseas Crypto Community Talking About Today?
What Have Foreigners Been Most Interested in the Last 24 Hours?

Who's at the CFTC Table? A Rebalancing of American Fintech Discourse
What on earth is the CFTC up to?
AI Trading vs Human Crypto Traders: $10,000 Live Trading Battle Results in Munich, Germany (WEEX Hackathon 2026)
Discover how AI trading outperformed human traders in WEEX's live Munich showdown. Learn 3 key strategies from the battle and why AI is changing crypto trading.
Elon Musk's X Money vs. Crypto's Synthetic Dollars: Who Wins the Future of Money?
How do Synthetic Dollars work? This guide explains their strategies, benefits over traditional stablecoins like USDT, and risks every crypto trader must know.

The Israeli military is hunting a mole on Polymarket
「The suspect's behavior has posed a significant operational risk and will be charged with serious security offenses.」

Q4 $667M Net Loss: Coinbase Earnings Report Foreshadows Challenging 2026 for Crypto Industry?
Coinbase reports $1.8B in total revenue in Q4 2025, with a $667M loss leading to a sharp drop in stock price.

BlackRock Buying UNI, What's the Catch?
DeFi has transitioned from "Experimental Finance" to "Infrastructure Finance."

Lost in Hong Kong
When yesterday's glory becomes today's shackles, only the courage to break free from the shackles can win tomorrow.

Gold Plunges Over 4%, Silver Crashes 11%, Stock Market Plummet Triggers Precious Metals Algorithmic Selling Pressure?
An analysis suggests that metal prices experienced a sudden drop due to a suspected algorithmic trading sell-off, leading some investors to unwind their positions in commodities including gold and silver to access liquidity.

Coinbase and Solana make successive moves, Agent economy to become the next big narrative
The new war around the Agent On-chain Economy has begun.

Aave DAO Wins, But the Game Is Not Over
The Aave community has achieved a milestone victory on the topics of revenue and governance, but key disagreements regarding the boundaries of funding, branding, and power remain unresolved

Coinbase Earnings Call, Latest Developments in Aave Tokenomics Debate, What's Trending in the Global Crypto Community Today?
What Was Trending Among Expats in the Last 24 Hours?

ICE, the parent company of the NYSE, Goes All In: Index Futures Contracts and Sentiment Prediction Market Tool
TradFi giants are moving into the crypto market at an unprecedented pace.

On-Chain Options: The Crossroads of DeFi Miners and Traders
An Insurance Policy, a Money Printer
Polymarket vs. Kalshi: The Full Meme War Timeline
The topic itself has become a growth engine, and this "flame war" may be their most effective business strategy.
Consensus Check: What Consensus Was Born at the 2026 First Conference?
Just concluded in Hong Kong, Consensus HK 2026 has set the stage for a new narrative this year.
Resigned in Less Than a Year of Taking Office, Why Did Yet Another Key Figure at the Ethereum Foundation Depart?
The Ethereum Foundation once again finds itself at the crossroads of personnel turmoil.
Russian-Ukrainian War Prediction Market Analysis Report
By analyzing transaction patterns, validate the predictive market as a harbinger of truth in the new media order
Ethereum Foundation Executive Director Resigns, Coinbase Rating Downgrade: What's the Overseas Crypto Community Talking About Today?
What Have Foreigners Been Most Interested in the Last 24 Hours?
Who's at the CFTC Table? A Rebalancing of American Fintech Discourse
What on earth is the CFTC up to?