Wintermute: The Bear Market is Not Over, But the Next Rebound Could Be "Different This Time"

SK Hynix may pursue a U.S. ADR listing as early as August, with SEC approval reportedly possible in late June amid strong AI chip supply chain demand.

On June 9, according to an OpenAI announcement, the company recently confidentially submitted a draft S-1 registration statement to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), beginning the preliminary compliance process for a potential initial public offering. OpenAI said it chose to disclose this proactively because it expected the news might leak; however, the company has not yet set a specific listing timeline, and related arrangements may still take some time.

On June 9, according to currently available news alerts, Apollo and Blackstone Group participated in a $35 billion financing for an Anthropic “chip project.” Based on the original wording of the report, the funding has already been raised, but public information remains limited. The financing structure, use of proceeds, project entity, and whether Apollo and Blackstone participated through equity, debt, or project financing have not yet been disclosed.

On June 9, according to monitoring by Onchain Lens, more than $31 million has been stolen from addresses linked to Humanity Protocol, and the attack is still ongoing, with the hacker continuously swapping H tokens for ETH. Project founder Terence Kwok later confirmed the security incident on X, saying the issue involved a private key leak.

In June, Bloomberg reported that despite Bitcoin falling below $60,000 last week, wiping out about $235 billion in market value within seven days, and dropping close to 50% from last year’s peak, some core businesses in the crypto industry are still expanding, mainly in stablecoins, real-world asset tokenization (RWA), payments, and infrastructure. The report also noted that overall altcoin activity has contracted significantly: altcoin market capitalization has fallen from a peak of about $431 billion in November 2021 to around $170 billion, and among the tens of millions of tokens issued in recent years, fewer than 1,700 still maintain meaningful trading activity.

In June, Binance Research said in its monthly market report that the real-world asset (RWA) market is expected to grow by about 589% from the beginning of 2025. Bond- and money market fund-related RWA expanded by about $6.5 billion, up 83% year over year, while publicly traded equity RWAs grew by about 422%. The report also noted that monthly crypto debit card transaction volume exceeded $747 million in May, up 48.6% year to date.

Recently, according to the original report, Japan is considering the launch of yen stablecoins and cryptocurrency ETFs. Public information remains limited at this stage, and there is still no complete policy text, regulatory draft, or clear implementation timeline, so this is better characterized as a “policy discussion” rather than formal implementation. The original wording also noted that advancing stablecoin regulation in Asia is driving XRP usage and supporting growth in the XRPL ecosystem. However, based on currently available public information, there is not enough evidence to directly establish a clear causal relationship between this round of discussion in Japan and XRP or XRPL.

On June 9, according to related disclosures, on-chain investigator ZachXBT posted an update on Humanity’s roughly $31 million security incident, saying that after further analyzing fund flows, he currently tends to believe the project team was not involved in an “inside job” or a self-staged attack. According to him, the official explanation about the private key leak was broadly accurate, but before the token unlock, the price of H had been artificially pushed higher, and the hacker later took advantage of that market environment; therefore, the private key leak and the earlier abnormal price pumping should be regarded as two separate and independent events. This reframing has shifted the market’s understanding of the nature of the incident. Earlier discussion around Humanity had focused on whether the team directly participated in the attack or used the security incident to cover up internal operations. ZachXBT’s latest remarks shift the focus from “whether it was self-theft” to “whether there were pre-unlock market structure issues.” He also questioned whether the team may have.