Wintermute:市场结构正在改善,主流代币已不再脆弱
BlockBeats 消息,12 月 2 日,Wintermute 发布市场报告表示,日本央行的加息预期冲击完全抹去了上周的稳定局面,并引发了广泛的去杠杆行为。市场结构已经干净重置:杠杆率大幅降低、资金面回归中性、现货参与度显著增强。现在一切都在按宏观逻辑交易,但主要货币对看起来已不再那么脆弱。
从市场结构的角度来看,状况实际上正在改善:基差已跌至周期低点,比特币 90 天年化基差接近 4% 至 5%,以太坊接近 3% 至 4%,反映出持续的杠杆多头头寸增加。永续合约总未平仓合约量已从 10 月初的约 2300 亿美元降至目前的约 1350 亿美元,清除了大量过剩杠杆,并降低了进一步机械平仓的可能性。现货交易量占比增加,考虑到感恩节假期的影响,现货供应的深度也好于预期。较低的杠杆率、负融资和更健康的现货参与,通常是宏观经济稳定后市场再度重整之前所需要的。
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