20VC Partner Claims AI Token Repeats Aluminum Industry History, Intelligent Agents May Open Unlimited Markets

20VC partner P_Bonnet draws parallels between the history of the aluminum industry and AI, exploring potential future scenarios. It is expected that most supply shortages will turn into surpluses within 3-5 years, leading to value destruction. The aluminum industry has experienced a process of over 99.9% price decline and market expansion of over 1000 times, with each price drop unlocking new uses rather than causing market collapse. AI Tokens are currently ascending the same cost ladder at approximately 10 times the speed, with the key being that humans are no longer a constraint. Conversational AI is limited by human reading speed and user scale, while reasoning and intelligent agents can make consumers no longer human. Agentic AI may completely remove human limits, leaving only the rapidly improving costs and utilities. The aluminum industry once relied on process breakthroughs to transform cheap metal into structural materials. At the infrastructure level, Alcoa monopolized for decades through processes, proprietary ore, and electricity; Nvidia, on the other hand, has accumulated through processes like CUDA, with production capacity resembling leasing and lacking electricity, while major clients have directly secured nuclear power and developed their own chips. Ultimately, value will shift to those who discover new uses, and price collapse, technological effectiveness, and capital migration are not opposites but rather the same outcome.

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