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Analysis: The prospects for US-Iran talks are bleak, but a narrow path to reaching an agreement still exists
According to Jinshi Data, the prospects for a diplomatic resolution to the US-Iran war remain bleak, but analysts believe that there is still a channel for reaching an agreement.
Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan, as mediators, are pushing for US and Iranian officials to meet as soon as this week. US President Trump and his political allies have expressed a positive attitude towards negotiations. It is reported that the US and Israel have temporarily removed Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf from the assassination list for 4 to 5 days to create conditions for the negotiations to start.
The demands of both sides after the war have significantly exceeded their pre-war positions. Iran demands that the US compensate for war damages, close military bases in the Middle East, and charge shipping companies passing through the Strait of Hormuz; the US demands that Iran stop uranium enrichment, restore freedom of navigation in the Strait, and limit its missile program and support for regional militias.
Analysts believe that if both sides determine that the cost of war is unbearable, they may first reach a ceasefire agreement and postpone core issues such as uranium stock disposal, verification mechanisms, and sanctions relief to subsequent negotiations. Michael Singh from the Washington Institute stated that a path for a minimum ceasefire agreement to proceed alongside a complete agenda is still feasible.
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