Chile Raises Lithium Production Forecast to 325,000 Tons, Market Expects Surplus by 2027

Chile has raised its lithium production forecast for 2026, expecting to produce approximately 325,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), up from the previous year's estimate of 305,000 tons. Production is expected to rise to 335,000 tons in 2027. Driven by the rapid growth of battery storage systems, global lithium demand is projected to increase by 25% this year, reaching 2.08 million tons, which is about 34% higher than last year's forecast. However, demand growth is expected to slow to 8% by 2027, when consumption is projected to reach 2.25 million tons. The Chilean National Copper Corporation (Cochilco) anticipates a supply shortage of 79,000 tons globally this year, compared to a forecasted surplus of 60,000 tons a year ago. By 2027, as new supplies gradually enter the market, supply growth is expected to outpace demand, pushing the market back into a surplus of 42,000 tons.