Buy Crypto- Markets
Futures- Spot
- Copy Trade
- Earn
- More
Japan's "interest rate hike" reversed? The market may still have room for positive growth in the short term
Original title: "The Bank of Japan is reportedly "inclined not to raise interest rates" next week. The yen arbitrage trading space continues. Can Bitcoin continue to rise? "
Original author: James, BlockTempo
The Bank of Japan will hold a monetary policy meeting from the 18th to the 19th. The 9 members of the Monetary Committee will then review whether to raise interest rates from 0.25%. However, according to Reuters, five sources said that the Bank of Japan is inclined to keep interest rates unchanged this time because policymakers want to spend more time examining overseas risks and clues to next year's wage outlook.
The report mentioned that the Bank of Japan has not yet reached a consensus on the final decision, because some members of the Monetary Committee believe that Japan has met the conditions for raising interest rates in December, but some members of the Monetary Committee believe that the rebound of the yen has eased price pressures and the Bank of Japan is not in a hurry to raise interest rates.
Originally, according to a Reuters survey last month, more than half of economists expected the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates this month, and about 90% of respondents predicted that the Bank of Japan would raise interest rates to 0.5% by the end of March next year, but the market now expects the probability of a rate hike in December to be less than 30%.
With the economy growing moderately, wages rising steadily, and inflation exceeding the 2% target for more than two years, there is growing confidence within the Bank of Japan that conditions for further rate hikes are gradually forming, and the Bank of Japan is likely to maintain its confidence in the economic outlook and continue to believe that consumption trends are growing moderately, sources said.
However, there is little urgency to raise rates now because the yen's recent rebound has reduced inflationary pressure from raw material imports, in contrast to the July rate hike to 0.25%, when the yen's rapid depreciation pushed up import prices and increased the risk of higher-than-expected inflation.
The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 1 basis point this month
While Japan is inclined not to raise interest rates this month, the Fed will also announce its latest interest rate decision at 2 a.m. on the 19th, Taiwan time. The data released by the United States on the 11th showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in November increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, which was in line with market expectations. Although the inflation data accelerated from the previous month, the market believes that it is still not enough to prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates at this meeting.
According to CME's FedWatch tool, the market expects that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 1 basis point at the meeting next week is 98.6%.
However, as the US inflation situation has risen for the second consecutive month, the Fed's interest rate decision may become more complicated, and the long-term interest rate cut trend may slow down, which means that the yen carry trade may still have room to remain attractive.
Does the cryptocurrency market still have room for bullishness in the short term?
Experts analyzed that the current overall economic situation has allowed Bitcoin to return to $100,000 under the background of the continued maintenance of the yen arbitrage space. If Japan continues not to raise interest rates and the United States continues to maintain the status quo of long-term inflation uncertainty, the cryptocurrency market will still have room for bullishness in the short term.
However, investors should still pay attention to the rapid overall economic policy changes in the United States and Japan. As long as the arbitrage space disappears, the yen arbitrage transaction liquidation wave in early August this year may reappear, once again impacting the global financial market.
The Bank of Japan decided to raise interest rates by 15 basis points at the end of July this year, and the Federal Reserve was preparing to cut interest rates at the time, which led to a sharp rise in the yen, compressing the profit space of the "borrow low-interest yen, buy high-interest currency" arbitrage transaction, causing a large number of investors to close their positions at the time, impacting the global stock market and the cryptocurrency market, which collapsed in early August.
You may also like
Stolen: $290 million, Three Parties Refusing to Acknowledge, Who Should Foot the Bill for the KelpDAO Incident Resolution?
ASTEROID Pumped 10,000x in Three Days, Is Meme Season Back on Ethereum?
ChainCatcher Hong Kong Themed Forum Highlights: Decoding the Growth Engine Under the Integration of Crypto Assets and Smart Economy
Why can this institution still grow by 150% when the scale of leading crypto VCs has shrunk significantly?
Anthropic's $1 trillion, compared to DeepSeek's $100 billion
Geopolitical Risk Persists, Is Bitcoin Becoming a Key Barometer?
Annualized 11.5%, Wall Street Buzzing: Is MicroStrategy's STRC Bitcoin's Savior or Destroyer?
An Obscure Open Source AI Tool Alerted on Kelp DAO's $292 million Bug 12 Days Ago
Mixin has launched USTD-margined perpetual contracts, bringing derivative trading into the chat scene.
The privacy-focused crypto wallet Mixin announced today the launch of its U-based perpetual contract (a derivative priced in USDT). Unlike traditional exchanges, Mixin has taken a new approach by "liberating" derivative trading from isolated matching engines and embedding it into the instant messaging environment.
Users can directly open positions within the app with leverage of up to 200x, while sharing positions, discussing strategies, and copy trading within private communities. Trading, social interaction, and asset management are integrated into the same interface.
Based on its non-custodial architecture, Mixin has eliminated friction from the traditional onboarding process, allowing users to participate in perpetual contract trading without identity verification.
The trading process has been streamlined into five steps:
· Choose the trading asset
· Select long or short
· Input position size and leverage
· Confirm order details
· Confirm and open the position
The interface provides real-time visualization of price, position, and profit and loss (PnL), allowing users to complete trades without switching between multiple modules.
Mixin has directly integrated social features into the derivative trading environment. Users can create private trading communities and interact around real-time positions:
· End-to-end encrypted private groups supporting up to 1024 members
· End-to-end encrypted voice communication
· One-click position sharing
· One-click trade copying
On the execution side, Mixin aggregates liquidity from multiple sources and accesses decentralized protocol and external market liquidity through a unified trading interface.
By combining social interaction with trade execution, Mixin enables users to collaborate, share, and execute trading strategies instantly within the same environment.
Mixin has also introduced a referral incentive system based on trading behavior:
· Users can join with an invite code
· Up to 60% of trading fees as referral rewards
· Incentive mechanism designed for long-term, sustainable earnings
This model aims to drive user-driven network expansion and organic growth.
Mixin's derivative transactions are built on top of its existing self-custody wallet infrastructure, with core features including:
· Separation of transaction account and asset storage
· User full control over assets
· Platform does not custody user funds
· Built-in privacy mechanisms to reduce data exposure
The system aims to strike a balance between transaction efficiency, asset security, and privacy protection.
Against the background of perpetual contracts becoming a mainstream trading tool, Mixin is exploring a different development direction by lowering barriers, enhancing social and privacy attributes.
The platform does not only view transactions as execution actions but positions them as a networked activity: transactions have social attributes, strategies can be shared, and relationships between individuals also become part of the financial system.
Mixin's design is based on a user-initiated, user-controlled model. The platform neither custodies assets nor executes transactions on behalf of users.
This model aligns with a statement issued by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on April 13, 2026, titled "Staff Statement on Whether Partial User Interface Used in Preparing Cryptocurrency Securities Transactions May Require Broker-Dealer Registration."
The statement indicates that, under the premise where transactions are entirely initiated and controlled by users, non-custodial service providers that offer neutral interfaces may not need to register as broker-dealers or exchanges.
Mixin is a decentralized, self-custodial privacy wallet designed to provide secure and efficient digital asset management services.
Its core capabilities include:
· Aggregation: integrating multi-chain assets and routing between different transaction paths to simplify user operations
· High liquidity access: connecting to various liquidity sources, including decentralized protocols and external markets
· Decentralization: achieving full user control over assets without relying on custodial intermediaries
· Privacy protection: safeguarding assets and data through MPC, CryptoNote, and end-to-end encrypted communication
Mixin has been in operation for over 8 years, supporting over 40 blockchains and more than 10,000 assets, with a global user base exceeding 10 million and an on-chain self-custodied asset scale of over $1 billion.
$600 million stolen in 20 days, ushering in the era of AI hackers in the crypto world
Vitalik's 2026 Hong Kong Web3 Summit Speech: Ethereum's Ultimate Vision as the "World Computer" and Future Roadmap
On the same day Aave introduced rsETH, why did Spark decide to exit?
Full Post-Mortem of the KelpDAO Incident: Why Did Aave, Which Was Not Compromised, End Up in Crisis Situation?
After a $290 million DeFi liquidation, is the security promise still there?
ZachXBT's post ignites RAVE nearing zero, what is the truth behind the insider control?
Vitalik 2026 Hong Kong Web3 Carnival Speech Transcript: We do not compete on speed; security and decentralization are the core
In-depth Analysis of RAVE Events: Short Squeeze, Crash, and Quantitative Financial Models of Liquidity Manipulation
App