Polymarket Valued at $20 Billion, What About Robinhood's Prediction Market?

Author: Hash Global

Valued at $15.5 billion, sold out in minutes.

The on-chain Pre-IPO launched by Binance in collaboration with Pancakeswap chose Polymarket (pPoly) as its first project. This market, which makes everything tradable, has now become a tradable asset itself. The issuance price of pPOLY is $15.5, corresponding to an implied valuation of about $15.5 billion; just half a month ago, Polymarket completed a $1 billion financing round, with a post-money valuation of about $21 billion. On the other hand, Kalshi announced a financing round in May this year with a valuation of $22 billion; recently, a report released by Pitchbook further raised Kalshi's valuation to approximately $30 billion.

This gives us a reference for understanding the value of prediction markets. When two representative companies in the prediction market already have market valuations in the tens of billions, what about Robinhood, the "first stock of prediction markets" that also operates in this space?

As prediction markets come back into the spotlight, it may be time to revisit this question:
| How is the prediction market changing Robinhood, and where will it take the company?
|

01 | How is Robinhood's prediction market doing?

People's impression of Robinhood's prediction market may still be limited to a new business under its umbrella or a user entry point for Kalshi.

Indeed, in the early days, Robinhood mainly played the role of a distribution channel, with the underlying market provided by third parties like Kalshi, while Robinhood was responsible for bringing the product to users and earning front-end brokerage commissions. Previously, this business line did not contribute significantly to Robinhood's revenue: in the 2025 annual report, the prediction market was not even disclosed as an independent revenue item but was included in "other trading income."

However, this year, two core changes have occurred:

1. Robinhood is no longer just a Distribution Layer: In January 2026, Robinhood completed the acquisition of the CFTC-regulated trading and clearing infrastructure MIAXdx, renamed it Rothera, and launched it in June, becoming one of the core infrastructures for Robinhood's prediction market. This represents Robinhood's gradual extension into the Infra layer.

2. The prediction market has become an indispensable business line for Robinhood. In Q2 2026, Robinhood's event contract trading revenue reached $156 million, growing more than tenfold year-on-year, surpassing the $129 million from stock trading and $100 million from crypto trading during the same period.

How should this figure be understood? For reference, DeFiLlama reported that Polymarket's Gross Protocol Revenue in Q2 2026 was approximately $150 million. In other words, Robinhood's Prediction Market is no longer just a marginal new product; despite a significant portion of the underlying trades still being provided by third parties, Robinhood has already captured revenue comparable to leading independent platforms simply by providing user entry and distribution capabilities.

More importantly, this market may just be opening up. Robinhood's management disclosed in the Q2 earnings call that nearly 2 million users have used the Prediction Market; meanwhile, Robinhood's funded accounts reached 28.4 million during the same period. This means that Robinhood's Prediction Market could potentially leverage a market space that is ten times larger with almost zero cost.

02 | When Distribution Eats Infra: Robinhood's "Upstream" Journey

Whether it's Polymarket or Kalshi, when the market discusses the valuation multiples of prediction markets, a recurring concern is whether barriers can be built in Distribution.

This is the reality that prediction markets must face: the upstream asset supply (event contracts) is not scarce, products are relatively homogeneous, and user migration costs are low. In this case, the competition lies in the ability to continuously acquire users. Bernstein has repeatedly emphasized in reports that "Distribution is the definitive competitive moat."

And this is precisely the advantage of platform players like Robinhood. Independent prediction markets need to develop products while building distribution networks; by the time Robinhood enters the market, users, accounts, and funding relationships are already established.

Early cooperation with Kalshi has illustrated this point. Bernstein estimated that in October 2025, Robinhood's trading volume was about 57% of Kalshi's activity for that month. This is a subtle relationship: in the early stages of cooperation, the channel helps the upstream expand the market; but as more and more orders come through the same entry point, the power dynamics will gradually shift towards the channel.

Such stories are not uncommon in the internet industry. When a channel possesses enough users and traffic, it often will not be content to only earn channel fees. What Robinhood is doing now is continuing to move upstream.

Distribution addresses breadth ------ how many users and orders can be brought in; the next challenge is to address depth ------ how much value can be retained in each transaction. The significance of Rothera lies here: in the past, Robinhood primarily earned front-end brokerage commissions, leaving the revenue from the underlying exchanges and clearing processes to third parties; now, some orders are beginning to be handled by Rothera, allowing that upstream revenue to potentially enter Robinhood's system. Rothera processed approximately 2.1 billion contracts in Q2, contributing about $17 million in revenue.

This is Robinhood's "upstream" journey in the prediction market. It appears to be a latecomer, but it is not starting from scratch ------ by entering the market, it already holds what other players are striving to obtain.

Distribution determines how many transactions Robinhood can bring, Infrastructure determines how much value can ultimately remain in those transactions.

And Robinhood is moving from mastering only the former to mastering both.

03 | The Same Prediction Market, Three Different Businesses

To gain a deeper understanding of Robinhood's prediction market, we also need to look at its strategic positioning in the industry compared to Polymarket and Kalshi. Although all three are engaged in Prediction Markets, the three companies aim to establish three different businesses.

Polymarket's ambitions extend beyond just being a trading platform. Centered around global events, it is gradually becoming a market that integrates trading, probability pricing, and information dissemination. This year, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, ICE, launched an institutional data product based on Polymarket, beginning to transform these probabilities formed by trading into market signals usable by financial institutions, which also allows Polymarket to explore commercialization beyond trading fees.

Kalshi, on the other hand, is closer to the growth path of an exchange. It has established its own trading and clearing infrastructure based on the U.S. regulatory system and is continuously expanding order sources through channels like Robinhood. At the same time, Kalshi is also expanding more trading categories. For the underlying trading infrastructure, the long-term barriers Kalshi needs to establish are products, liquidity, and trading conditions. When partners like Robinhood begin to build their own exchanges, Kalshi needs to prove why orders are still worth keeping at Kalshi, even when there are more choices in channels.

In contrast, what Robinhood aims to do may be quite different.

It does not need to make the Prediction Market an independent business, nor does it require all trades to occur on its Rothera. In fact, even with Rothera online, Robinhood is still integrating more third-party markets. What it truly wants to master is the relationship between users and financial services: no matter where the new trading demand comes from, it can be satisfied through Robinhood.

However, the integration of business boundaries does not mean they are competing for exactly the same long-term value. The same trade may generate information worth using by media and institutions for Polymarket; for Kalshi, it means more market liquidity and exchange revenue; while for Robinhood, it could be the beginning of a longer-term financial relationship.

Therefore, in observing the competition among the three in the future, what we really need to focus on is not just trading volume and market share, but where this value ultimately resides.

Especially for Robinhood, a more important question is: How many users brought in by the Prediction Market will ultimately remain within Robinhood's system?

After all, trading can be a reason for users to walk into Robinhood, but it may not be the only reason Robinhood hopes they will stay.

04｜More Than One Growth Curve: Trading is the Entry Point, Wealth is the Longer Business

Robinhood's expectations for the prediction market clearly go beyond just an additional trading revenue stream.

In an interview in September this year, Vlad explicitly referred to the prediction market as a very effective customer acquisition entry point (Top-of-Funnel Driver): users may first use Robinhood for a specific event contract, and then start trading stocks or even open retirement accounts. In contrast, long-term financial products like Retirement, while important, are difficult to serve as a standalone reason to attract young users to download the app.

Thus, the significance of trading-type businesses may far exceed the revenue they can generate on their own.

A young user may initially be interested only in stocks, crypto, or a particular World Cup match, but as she ages and her wealth grows, her financial service needs will continue to evolve. From trading and saving to asset allocation, retirement planning, and more comprehensive wealth management, Robinhood hopes these needs will gradually remain within its system.

Vlad also discussed the upcoming $100 trillion intergenerational wealth transfer in the U.S. over the next few decades. As wealth gradually shifts from the previous generation to the younger generation, the opportunities facing Robinhood are no longer just about serving the trading needs of young people, but also about further accommodating their growing assets in the future.

From this perspective, the Prediction Market is a new growth curve, but more importantly, it can serve as a starting point for the next batch of long-term customers.

Trading is responsible for bringing people in, but the real long-term value is determined by how many users are willing to leave their wealth behind.

05｜From Distribution to Market Creation: The Future of Financial Super Apps

Looking back at Robinhood's product layout along this line of thought makes it easier to understand why it continuously expands its product shelf while also extending into underlying infrastructure.

From stocks, options, and crypto to prediction markets and tokenized stocks, it aims to meet an increasing number of trading demands; from Rothera to Robinhood Chain, it is also gradually enhancing the underlying capabilities to support these products.

However, Robinhood is not fixated on building all infrastructure by itself. Even with Rothera, it continues to collaborate with Kalshi and ForecastEx, and in September this year, it integrated the trading and clearing infrastructure of OG.com under Crypto.com.

Vlad's description of this approach is straightforward: what Robinhood aims to do is integrate products from different exchanges into a single front end, allowing users to have more choices without worrying about who is actually carrying the underlying trading.

This means that what Robinhood wants to master is not just distribution or a specific set of infrastructure, but a more flexible market organization capability: first look at what users need, then decide what products to offer, which infrastructure to connect, and how to deliver it to users.

This has a somewhat parallel meaning to Binance's launch of pPOLY. One turns events and probabilities into Event Contracts, while the other packages an unlisted prediction market company into a Pre-IPO Token. Both are trying to quickly transform new trading demands into tradable products.

But for Robinhood, this capability has even longer-term uses.

It is not just about enabling users to trade more things, but ensuring that new demands arising at different stages can be met on the same platform. Today it may be the Prediction Market, tomorrow it may be retirement accounts, asset management, or other yet-to-emerge financial products.

So, what truly deserves attention in a Financial Super App may not be how many SKUs are on the shelf, but rather whether it can continuously meet new financial needs and ultimately solidify these needs into long-term customer and asset relationships.

Moving from Short-Term Attention to Long-Term Value

Returning to the initial question: if Polymarket is valued at $20 billion, what about Robinhood?

Perhaps the insight that Prediction Markets bring to Robinhood is not just a new valuation reference, but rather a rethinking of what a financial platform truly deserves to accumulate.

Prediction markets are a business about short-term attention. Users come for an election or a competition; once the event is over, contracts settle, and attention swiftly moves to the next hot topic.

However, what Robinhood aims to do is precisely a business about long-term value. It hopes that every brief transaction can serve as the starting point for a more enduring financial relationship.

Making everything tradable is the ability to capture the moment; transforming fleeting attention into a wealth relationship that transcends time may be Robinhood's greater ambition.