Solana Reduces Issuance by 18.9 Million SOL; BTC Quantum Experiment Underway

The quantum resistance experiment of Bitcoin (BTC) and the passing of Solana's (SOL) issuance reduction plan have emerged as long-term security and supply structure agendas in the blockchain market this week. In BTC, experiments that do not immediately change the protocol and research on long-term signature systems are being conducted in parallel, while in SOL, a vote to accelerate the reduction of new issuance speed has passed.

StarkWare announced on August 26 that Avihu Levy's Quantum-Safe Bitcoin (QSB) method has been executed for the first time on the BTC mainnet. QSB reduces the risk of attacks during the exposure of public keys by utilizing hash-based locks and pre-computation without changing Bitcoin's consensus rules.

However, this experiment has not made the entire BTC quantum-safe. StarkWare explained that QSB is merely a case of executing a specific structure's transmission on the mainnet and does not protect addresses where public keys have already been exposed. The transaction format is also non-standard, requiring a direct path from miners instead of going through the general mempool.

The significance of QSB lies in testing possible defensive paths within the current rules through actual transactions. Regular BTC transactions typically rely on public key cryptographic signatures, while QSB attempts to bypass this interval with a hash-based structure. Previously, this publication reported on StarkWare executing quantum-safe transactions on the Bitcoin mainnet.

Blockstream proposed a method to incorporate post-quantum signatures into the BTC structure by releasing OP_CHECKSHRINCS on May 12. In that article, Blockstream stated that there is currently no specific proposal for a post-quantum signature system for BTC and considered SHRINCS, a hash-based signature, as a candidate. They explained that using a compact path with 580-byte signatures could allow for a maximum of three transactions per second if all signatures use that path.

Discussions on post-quantum signatures involve intertwined issues of signature size, throughput, wallet compatibility, and whether to change consensus rules. The key lies not only in selecting specific algorithms but also in how nodes, miners, exchanges, and custodians will accept the new format. Therefore, industry discussions are closer to reviewing multiple candidates than finding a single solution.

Institutional movements have also continued. Nine companies, including Strategy, BlackRock, and Coinbase ($COIN), have formed a Bitcoin Security Consortium and pledged $15 million (approximately 2.07 billion KRW) over three years. The Block reported that the consortium's top priority is long-term security research for BTC, including post-quantum cryptography.

Discussions on quantum resistance are not limited to BTC. A draft has been proposed in Ethereum (ETH) to allow validator deposit contracts to receive quantum-resistant key formats, and this publication has reported on the quantum-resistant key draft for Ethereum deposit contracts. This can be seen as a trend where major networks are re-evaluating their long-term cryptographic systems.

On the SOL side, supply structure adjustment was a key agenda. SGP-0002 passed in the final vote on August 28 with 67% in favor, 25.16% against, and 7.84% abstaining, with a participation rate of 60.7%. CoinDesk reported that the last-minute movement of stakes related to Kraken and Galaxy influenced the passage.

According to the final official document, SGP-0002 increases the annual de-inflation rate from 15% to 30%. While the long-term final inflation target of 1.5% remains unchanged, the timeline for reaching it has been advanced from approximately 5.7 years to about 2.8 years. The document states that the issuance will decrease by approximately 18.9 million SOL over the next six years, resulting in a total supply approximately 2.6% lower than the previous schedule.

This figure is based on the final version. The initial GitHub draft had different calculations of a reduction of 22.3 million SOL and a timeline of 3.1 years, but the final official document and forum documents have been consolidated to 18.9 million SOL and approximately 2.8 years. This is why it is necessary to distinguish between draft figures and final figures in articles and market interpretations.

Adjusting the de-inflation rate directly affects validator rewards, staking yields, and the economic structure of the network rather than just prices. Reducing issuance more quickly lowers the long-term supply growth rate, but it also changes the reward structure for validators and delegators. The close margin in the final vote reflects these interests.

Macroeconomic outlooks have also been discussed in the market at the same time. Bernstein, in a MarketWatch report, predicted that BTC could recover to $125,000 (approximately 172.25 million KRW) by the end of 2026, and reach $300,000 (approximately 413.4 million KRW) in the basic scenario and $500,000 (approximately 689 million KRW) in the bullish scenario by 2029. This is not a confirmed price but Bernstein's forecast.

Reuters reported on August 25 that BTC had surpassed $80,000. The background includes debasement trades triggered by a weaker dollar and interventions in the treasury market. The quantum resistance research and SOL issuance reduction are issues of technology and token structure, while Bernstein's outlook is a price scenario relying on the macro environment, highlighting their different natures.

This trend is more about major networks examining the conditions for long-term survival rather than being short-term price materials for specific chains. BTC is testing the signature systems and security budgets of the quantum computer era, while SOL has entered a phase of recalibrating the balance between validator economics and supply growth rates.

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