Veteran Trader After Four Bull Cycles: Bitcoin is 'Goldifying', the Main Surge of BTC Has Yet to Trigger

Written by · Host Mr. Z (@168MrZ)

This round welcomes a long bull: The correlation between BTC and gold has risen to historical extremes, and the main surge of BTC has yet to trigger. Altcoins are only focusing on the main lines that have already run, such as ZEC, HYPE, UNI, and NEAR.

On September 29, 2026, Tuesday at 2 PM. After months of silence, Benson returns to 168X. Over the past few months, he has devoted a lot of time to family, focusing on lending and arbitrage in trading, until recently when signs of a "bull beginning" reappeared in the market, prompting him to start increasing directional trades again.

In this episode of 168X, we welcome Benson (@BensonTWN), the Founder of CoinKarma (@coinkarma_). This is his fourth round of the Crypto bull market, but this time his judgment is completely different from the past: Bitcoin is gradually transitioning from "high-volatility tech stock Beta" to true Digital Gold; this bull market may not be a skyrocketing event but rather a longer cycle with smaller cycles nested within. The ideal scenario for BTC is around $200,000, but the real main surge has not yet appeared; altcoins are no longer suitable for digging for "hidden Alpha" everywhere but should directly buy the main lines that have been confirmed by price.

1. Bitcoin is Goldifying: BTC/Gold Correlation Reaches Historical Extremes

Mr. Z: This is your fourth round of the Crypto bull market. If this is the early stage of the bull market, what is your core thesis for this round?

Benson: I wrote an article at the beginning of September, and the core idea is that this may be the beginning of Bitcoin's goldification. In every cycle, from the end of the bear market to the beginning of the bull market, there is an interesting pattern: the correlation coefficient between BTC and gold rises rapidly from a low level.

Benson: Historically, Bitcoin has not been as correlated with gold as people think; the median of the 60-day rolling correlation coefficient is only about 0.2 to 0.3. Most of the time, Bitcoin behaves more like a high-volatility version of Nasdaq, moving with tech stocks and dollar liquidity. However, towards the end of the bear market and the beginning of the bull market, the gold attributes suddenly strengthen.

Benson: What is particularly special about this round is the magnitude. The 60-day rolling correlation coefficient between BTC and gold once reached around 0.64 to 0.65. In Bitcoin's history, there have only been 21 days when the 60-day correlation coefficient was above 0.6, of which 17 days occurred in the last month and a half. In previous bull markets, goldification would occur at the beginning, but this time it has lasted the longest and has the highest absolute value.

2. BTC is No Longer Just a Nasdaq Enhanced Version: It is Switching Between Gold and Equity

Mr. Z: So you mean BTC is not completely turning into gold, but its originally equity-oriented attributes are starting to lean towards safe-haven assets?

Benson: Yes. In the past, if the market was risk-off, Bitcoin would generally drop more severely than tech stocks because many people bought it as a high-volatility Beta. But there is another group of people in the market who treat it as a long-term Store of Value, and their trading methods are completely different.

Benson: When the price drops from a high level, the liquidity traders will run first. Once the floating chips settle down, those who truly regard BTC as a Store of Value will start to enter, so towards the end of the bear market, Bitcoin will suddenly resemble gold more and more.

Benson: Now I often look at the charts of Nasdaq, BTC, and gold simultaneously. Currently, BTC still retains its equity attributes, but it is no longer almost completely correlated with Nasdaq. It now stands more in between gold and Nasdaq and is increasingly leaning towards gold.

Benson: Interestingly, when gold recently fell, BTC also fell, but relatively less; when gold rose, BTC often rose even more. This price behavior was not so obvious in the past.

3. $82,000 to $83,000 is a Key Support: The Big Truck Has Just Started, It’s Not Easy to Turn Back Immediately

Mr. Z: If the previous rise from over $60,000 has increased by about 30%, many people haven't boarded yet. Now at $82,000 and $83,000, should they still buy? Or wait for $75,000?

Benson: I think the market will truly start to confirm the bull market when BTC breaks above $82,000 to $82,500. After breaking the weekly structure, it will stimulate some longer-term CTA funds to come in.

Benson: Imagine BTC as a big truck. It has just started and is beginning to accelerate; asking it to immediately hit the brakes and turn back to the originally bearish area is very difficult unless a significant macro event occurs.

Benson: Technically, after breaking an important resistance level, it usually comes back to test, and the original resistance becomes support. So the support I’m looking at now is around $82,000 to $83,000.

Benson: Crypto has a very annoying aspect: it may only have 10% of the time in a true main surge, while the other 90% is in fluctuations, making you doubt life. If you already believe this is the beginning of a bull market, then the pullback is meant for you to buy, not to make you doubt whether the bull market has returned.

4. How to Value BTC: The Answer Given by Gold is $150,000 to $250,000

Mr. Z: Previous guests have estimated BTC in this round to be around $150,000 to $180,000. What is your own target?

Benson: If my core thesis is BTC goldification, then I think the most reasonable coordinate is not simply drawing K-lines but looking at the BTC/Gold Ratio.

Benson: Currently, 1 BTC can buy about 18 to 20 ounces of gold. This ratio has continuously broken through a level at the peaks of the past few bull markets. The last round's relatively obvious peak was around 40.

Benson: If this round's narrative against fiat currency devaluation and debasement is indeed stronger, we assume the BTC/Gold Ratio can reach 45 to 50, while gold is around $5,000, then BTC would fall in the range of $200,000 to $250,000.

Benson: If it cannot break through the previous round's level, for example, if it only reaches 35 to 40, then it might be $150,000 to $180,000. So I would consider $150,000 to $180,000 as a relatively normal scenario, while $200,000 to $250,000 is a more ideal scenario.

5. ETFs Changed the Game: Institutions Can Finally Treat BTC as a Financial Asset

Mr. Z: Why do you think this round of BTC goldification is more obvious than in the past?

Benson: I think one important reason is ETFs. In the past, pension funds or more formal institutions found it very troublesome to take BTC spot exposure. They could only buy proxies like Coinbase or MicroStrategy and had no way to participate in BTC directly.

Benson: Moreover, for institutions, there are requirements for liquidity, risk control, custody, and regulations. We can sell BTC on exchanges for USD, but pension funds cannot manage assets this way.

Benson: After ETFs securitized BTC, everything became completely different. Institutions can directly buy IBIT or other BTC ETFs and can also do LTV, financing, and asset allocation around these securitized products.

Benson: Previously, there was a group of people who wanted to buy BTC as gold, but they couldn't enter. After the emergence of ETFs, this group of funds finally has an entry that fits the traditional financial system, which will make the path to Digital Gold much smoother.

6. This Round is Not a Firework: Bitcoin's Bull Market is Transitioning from a Single Cycle to a Long Cycle

Mr. Z: So this round might not explode like in previous months, but the explosive power is not as exaggerated, yet it lasts longer?

Benson: I think this change has actually been happening for many years. The bull market in 2017 was very simple; it rose from the beginning of the year to the end and then ended directly, basically a firework.

Benson: From 2020 to 2021, it was not like that; it began to show two obvious peaks. In the next round, it turned into several stages, with a rise, a half-year fluctuation, and then another rise, with continuous events like tariffs and liquidity in between, followed by new highs.

Benson: Therefore, the structure of BTC's bull market has gradually transformed from "one big market" into a large cycle nested with many small cycles. I think this characteristic will be more pronounced in this round.

Benson: So the $150,000, $180,000, $200,000, or even $250,000 I mentioned earlier, I don't necessarily think that is the final endpoint of the entire large cycle. The goldification of Bitcoin and the repricing of US Treasury credit will ultimately evolve over an unknown duration.

Benson: You can even think about a question in reverse: Everyone originally thought the four-year cycle should end at a certain time and believed the bear market should drop 70% or 80%, but this time it ended after dropping more than 50%. Is it possible that we are still in the same larger cycle, just experiencing several small bull and bear markets in between?

7. Stop Fantasizing About Being a Genius: The Simplest Strategy in a Bull Market is to Buy the Confirmed Main Lines

Mr. Z: So how should altcoins be handled? Is it still necessary to spend a lot of time researching coins that the market hasn't discovered yet?

Benson: I am now in my fourth cycle, and every round people say a certain altcoin will change the world, but in the end, most of them turn out to be air.

So my strategy this round is very simple. At the beginning of the bull market, I directly buy the narratives that have been confirmed by price, the coins that really have funds supporting them and can run independently.

Benson: I would rather be a person with an IQ of 100. Since I subjectively believe it is the beginning of a bull market, I will buy the main lines that have already run in the market, rather than spend a lot of effort fantasizing that I can find something that no one else has seen.

Benson: Now everyone has AI and can do research. If something is really super obvious and has a great fundamental basis, but the price shows no reaction, you should first ask yourself: Why is it that only you in the entire market understand it? Is it possible that you are actually mistaken?

You cannot always be the smartest person in the market. So for the average person, rather than constantly switching cars, it is better to find the already confirmed main lines, add a little during pullbacks, and then let the waves push you.

8. 100 Times Returns are Getting Harder: If the Capital is Small, the Problem May Not Be the Market, but the Capital

Mr. Z: But younger people with smaller funds may feel that this is not exciting enough. ZEC, UNI, HYPE have already grown so much, and it’s not easy to increase by 2 or 3 times, so where can high multiples be found?

Benson: It must be acknowledged that the opportunity structure in Crypto is completely different from 2021. In the past, you could really buy SOL for a few dollars on exchanges and then hold it to reach dozens or hundreds of dollars. It is now very rare for ordinary people to easily encounter opportunities for 20 times, 50 times, or even 100 times on exchanges.

Benson: If your principal is really very small, and you have to multiply it by 100 or 1000 to reach your life goals, then often it's not the market's problem, but your principal's problem.

Benson: If you really want to chase such a magnitude of returns, I think the high probability opportunities are on-chain, not in the already mature altcoins on exchanges. But this also means your approach is completely different; you must be very good at making waves, very good at risk control, and the failure rate will be much higher.

Benson: Small profits from a large principal are not small, while large profits from a small principal are not large. After the market matures, this is a reality that is hard to bypass.

9. On-Chain or Exchange: Know Your Home Field First, Not All Alpha is Worth Grabbing

Mr. Z: So why haven't you invested much on-chain yourself? There are still high-multiple opportunities on Robinhood and Solana.

Benson: Because I think you need to know what your home field is. On-chain requires a very high level of focus; you might have to sit for a long time waiting for those few real opportunities, and in between, you'll encounter countless failed projects.

Benson: At least the people I know who have truly made significant results on-chain usually have their gains concentrated in a very few opportunities. You can think of it as a dealing machine; out of 10,000 decks, only two or three hundred are truly good cards.

Benson: But in the secondary market of exchanges, I might find two or three thousand playable cards out of 10,000. For me, in terms of mental effort, time, and stability of the profit curve, I prefer the secondary market of exchanges.

Benson: This doesn't mean that on-chain is bad. If you are young, have time, have a fresh mindset, and are willing to wait for those rare opportunities, then of course you can do it. It's just that I now have a family and children, and I won't treat this market as my main battlefield anymore.

Benson: Not all Alpha should be grabbed. The most important thing is to know what kind of opportunities best match your own capital, time, and capability circle.

10. Altcoins Focus on 4 Main Lines: ZEC, HYPE, UNI, NEAR

Mr. Z: So the altcoins you are really holding recently are just those few?

Benson: Yes, I am mainly focused on ZEC, HYPE, UNI, and NEAR; these four are my main lines.

Benson: I will still change positions in between. For example, if HYPE reaches a round number like 100 USD, and I see a noticeable selling pressure above, I might temporarily jump ship and switch to SOL or other stronger-performing coins. But this is tactical and doesn't mean a long-term change in my main line.

Benson: I am quite familiar with this market, so sometimes I can change positions based on price performance. But if you are not watching every day and don't have experience over several cycles, I actually think it's unnecessary.

Benson: The most common mistake people make is not buying the wrong main line, but continuously trying to outsmart themselves within the main line. Holding on might actually be better.

11. A Set of Indicators to Cover the Entire Market: Buy Low, Sell High, No Need to Invent Strategies for Each Coin

Mr. Z: Since you mainly look at price now, how do you decide when to add positions and when to reduce them?

Benson: We at CoinKarma have a Market Pulse Index that specifically looks at the market position, ranging from 0 to 100. The closer it is to 0, the closer the market is to a relative low; the higher the value, the hotter it gets.

Benson: For example, from May to August this year, there was a long period in the teens and twenties; that position for me is just buy freely. On September 16, when BTC returned to around 75,000, I directly implemented a very simple quantitative rule: when the index is below 25, I invest 10,000 USD every hour into the main lines I just mentioned.

Benson: I won't invent a set of strategies for ZEC, another for HYPE, and yet another for UNI. Because most of the time, these altcoins are still highly correlated with the BTC market.

Benson: So my approach is very simple: treat the market index as a water level. Buy below a certain water level, sell above a certain water level, and then take the big waves.

Benson: I believe that as trading systems mature, they should actually become simpler. You don't need to prove every day that you are smarter than the market; instead, you need a framework and then execute it repeatedly.

12. Why I Switched All ETH to UNI: U.S. Stocks on Chain May Be the Major Line This Round

Mr. Z: Last round you mainly held BTC, ETH, and SOL, but it seems you said this round you have switched all ETH to UNI?

Benson: Yes, I have switched all my ETH positions to Uniswap. Because I believe that a major line this round for altcoins is U.S. stocks going on-chain.

Benson: If tokenized stocks truly enter DeFi in the future, then DEX and AMM will be very core infrastructure. Uniswap itself already has the largest decentralized trading network effect, so for me, rather than holding ETH, I prefer to directly hold something that is more directly related to this direction's Beta.

Benson: Another change is regulation. In the past, many crypto narratives were essentially doing regulatory arbitrage because regulation hadn't caught up, so these products could survive. But if regulation starts to formally include AMM, liquidity pools, and tokenized securities into an operable framework, the significance will be completely different.

Benson: Previously it was "I can do this because regulation hasn't caught up," but in the future it might become "regulation clearly tells you how to do it, so traditional funds can finally come in." These are two completely different markets.

Supplement: The SEC officially released a temporary, conditional Innovation Exemption on September 17, 2026, allowing qualifying tokenized securities venues to trade certain tokenized NMS stocks under a specific framework using permissioned AMM and liquidity pools.

13. Old Indicators Can't See the Top: What to Really Watch is Whether Institutional Liquidity is Keeping Up

Mr. Z: Why did CoinKarma recently launch the Institutional Liquidity Index?

Benson: Because in the past, everyone was used to looking at top indicators, which are becoming less useful.

Benson: The top in 2017 was easy to recognize. Retail investors were extremely enthusiastic, funding rates exploded, and on-chain indicators were all overheated; it was obvious that the market was crazy. But at the later highs of 69,000 and 126,000, the market didn't show that kind of overall enthusiasm.

Benson: The reason is that marginal buying has changed. Previously, at high levels, retail investors were buying frantically while large holders started selling; now, when BTC is at high levels, what really determines whether it can continue to rise is whether institutional funds are still flowing in.

Benson: So our Institutional Liquidity Index mainly looks at three things: first, the overall liquidity of USD, including some data from the fiscal side; second, MicroStrategy's mNAV; and third, the net flow of BTC ETFs over the past 30 days.

Benson: When BTC prices keep hitting new highs but institutional liquidity doesn't keep up, we will mark it as divergence. Yellow is mild, red is severe.

Benson: We backtested several cases where red divergence coincided with the last round's high of about 123,000 and the previous round's high of about 67,000. Yellow divergence also mostly corresponds to important local tops.

Benson: In the future, the top of a bull market may no longer look like "everyone has gone crazy," but rather like "prices are still hitting new highs, but the money behind it is no longer keeping up." This change is very important.

14. CoinKarma Aims to Create a Crypto Trading OS: Moving from Data Viewing to Automated Execution

Mr. Z: So what does CoinKarma really want to achieve next? Is it still a data dashboard?

Benson: No, what we want to create is an Operating System for Cryptocurrency Trading.

Benson: Currently, the vast majority of data products are still at the stage of "showing you data." After you see an indicator, you still have to connect data APIs, exchange APIs, run backtests, write strategies, and deploy; the whole process is very lengthy.

Benson: Our direction is that you can directly use CoinKarma's data, write conditions using a language close to human expression, such as entering when a certain indicator is greater than 3 and exiting when it is less than 1, and then directly throw it into the backtesting engine.

Benson: If you think this strategy makes sense, we can directly help you host it. You put in the funds, and it executes automatically according to the rules, and you can adjust parameters at any time afterwards.

Benson: Currently, there are about 700 bots in live trading, with around 1,000 users, and the total AUM is about 14 million USD. Each bot acts like an independent position, separated from the user's other exchange assets.

Mr. Z: This sounds easier to implement than "letting the AI agent decide how to trade".

Benson: I think the biggest problem with AI agents is not whether the model is strong enough, but what data you actually provide them. If you only give them K-lines, volume, and price data that everyone can see, no matter how strong the model is, it will be hard to generate alpha out of thin air.

Benson: The facts themselves may be cheap, but the interpretation of those facts is very expensive. You either need to see data that others can't see, or everyone sees the same data, but your interpretation is better than theirs.

Benson: Without unique data and insights, no matter how smart the AI agent is, it is just cooking with ordinary ingredients.

15. How to Confirm the Main Rising Phase: 60,000 BTC Net Inflow in 30 Days for ETFs Indicates When the Market is Ready to Explode

Mr. Z: Finally, let's be direct. Everyone says we are at the beginning of a bull market, but when will the real "main rising phase" come?

Benson: I have a very simple judgment method: look at the rolling 30-day net inflow of BTC ETFs.

Benson: If the net inflow over the past 30 days exceeds 60,000 BTC, I would consider that the market starts to have the conditions for a main rising phase. In the past few obvious main rising phases, similar situations have occurred, and in truly extreme cases, the 30-day net inflow can even reach 100,000 BTC.

Benson: The logic is simple. Given BTC's current size, if it is to rise by 20% or 30% in a month, institutional funds like ETFs would almost certainly have to participate. So 60,000 is a very good threshold.

Benson: At the time of the interview, this number was only about 30,000 to 40,000, so my judgment is: the real main rising phase has not yet come.

Benson: I will reverse this signal as an indicator for reducing my altcoin holdings. For example, if my altcoins originally account for 25% of my portfolio, after the first real bullish phase, I might reduce it to 12.5%; if it happens again, I might almost stop holding altcoins altogether.

Benson: The most dangerous part of a bull market is that people tend to do the exact opposite. At the beginning of a bull market, they are afraid to buy, only putting in 10% or 20%; after making money through several pullbacks, they start to develop inertia, and by the time they reach the peak, they have maximized their positions and leverage.

Benson: When the music starts, you have to dare to jump in and dance; when everyone is drunk, you should go to the bar and ask for a glass of ice water to keep yourself sober.

Mr. Z: So this round requires preparation for a long bull market, while also knowing when to exit. If you drink, you will get drunk; if you are drunk, you should retreat.

Benson: Yes, these two things are completely not in conflict. When it's time to leave gracefully, just go; don't wait until the security has to carry you out.

Mr. Z: So this episode can actually be summarized into a few simple judgments: First, BTC is transitioning from high-volatility tech stock Beta to Digital Gold; second, this round may not just be a few months of explosive growth, but a longer cycle; third, altcoins should not fantasize about discovering hidden Alpha everywhere, but should directly focus on the main lines that have already been confirmed by prices; fourth, the real bullish phase looks at ETF funds, while the true peak depends on whether institutional liquidity keeps up. The most important thing in a bull market is not to always predict correctly, but to dare to bet at the beginning of the bull market, to hold during the main bullish phase, and to remember to exit when everyone is most excited. Thanks to Benson for joining us again on 168X!

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