Wall Street Morning Briefing: Market Soars on Oil Prices and AI Recovery, Nvidia Falls Alone, Data Centers Become Political Regulation Focus, CPI Lacks Year-on-Year Comparison Adds Variables

Every Monday to Friday morning, we focus on macroeconomics, US stocks, AI, precious metals, and crude oil, reviewing the market with data and seizing opportunities with trends, produced by PANews.

US-Iran Nuclear Talks Turn into "Rashomon", Washington's Political Infighting Escalates, Data Center Bill Intertwined with Shutdown Crisis

Driven by the withdrawal of geopolitical premiums and short covering, US stocks experienced a violent rebound on Monday. The S&P 500 index surged 2.35%, marking the largest single-day gain in seven months, with all 11 major industry sectors rising; the Nasdaq Composite soared 2.74%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 2.15%; and the Russell 2000 index skyrocketed 3.15%.

The catalyst for this market frenzy is the potential turning point in the Middle East situation. According to Saudi media Al Arabiya, with mediation from Qatar and Pakistan, the US and Iran have resumed nuclear talks and reached a preliminary consensus, with the US agreeing to allow Iran to maintain a maximum uranium enrichment level of 3.67%. In exchange, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, and the US will unfreeze $6 billion to $9 billion of Iranian assets. Trump stated after meeting with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed that there is positive momentum towards ending the conflict. Although Iran's top security official Rezaei later refuted this and accused the US of fabricating fake news, oil traders have already begun to sell off. Brent crude futures plummeted nearly 8% at one point, while WTI crude futures hit a low of $85.02, both reaching new lows since August 31, and the domestic SC crude main contract also fell below 600 yuan for the first time since August.

Meanwhile, political undercurrents are stirring in Washington. Just six days after a disastrous midterm election, Trump, who recently replaced the White House Chief of Staff with hardliner Stephen Miller, suddenly overturned his previous cooperative stance, reviving conspiracy theories and questioning early voting and voting machine fraud; meanwhile, incoming Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer mocked Trump, stating he is stuck in old patterns and cannot change the fact that he will face the largest Democratic majority in Congress in decades over the next two years.

The battle between the two parties over war and infrastructure has entered a heated stage, with Kentucky Republican Congressman Thomas Massie suddenly submitting a resolution to impeach Defense Secretary Peter Hegseth over military actions in Iran, Yemen, and Venezuela; at the same time, House Appropriations Committee Chief Democrat Rosa DeLauro and Senator Patty Murray stated they are considering using the December 11 government funding deadline as leverage to force Trump to end the Iran war that is driving up living costs, which could trigger the fourth government shutdown during Trump's tenure. Additionally, the Senate has initiated procedures to vote on a bipartisan bill to expedite the approval of data centers and transmission networks, proposing to shorten environmental assessments and make large companies bear electricity costs, but House Democratic leader Jeffries and environmentalists within the party still feel the regulations are insufficient, and political resistance remains strong.

The sharp drop in oil prices has alleviated inflation concerns, pushing the dollar index down about 0.5% to 101.78, while the offshore yuan broke through the 6.67 mark. The dollar's retreat has led to a rebound in precious metals, with COMEX November gold futures rising 1% to $4,105 per ounce, and spot gold soaring over 1.7% to $4,140.69, while COMEX silver futures and copper futures also recorded gains.

Meanwhile, the US bond market is showing caution, with yields rising slightly for two consecutive days. The latest hawkish comments from two Federal Reserve officials further confirm the caution in the bond market, with Richmond Fed President Barkin and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee sounding the alarm about the risks of uncontrolled service sector inflation and the pressure of corporate cost pass-through, indicating that the direction of interest rate hikes remains clear. More dramatically, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed that tonight's October CPI will completely lack "year-on-year data" (due to the loss of baseline data caused by the 2025 government shutdown), retaining only month-on-month forecasts (with core CPI expected to slow to 0.2% month-on-month), leaving macro traders facing a blindfolded pricing challenge.

AI Infrastructure Strongly Recovers, Anthropic Challenges IPO with New Model

The US tech sector experienced a "decentralized" trend last night, with significant capital flowing into previously oversold semiconductor, optical communication, storage, and AI power sectors, driving the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index to soar 6.85%, with a cumulative surge of nearly 11.4% over two days. SlateStone Wealth Chief Market Strategist Ken Polcari pointed out that the AI industry has formed its own strong endogenous momentum, and neither the turmoil of a single giant nor the regulatory constraints from the Democrats can reverse the investment logic in AI.

Currently, the competition for AI computing power is shifting from "general GPU monopoly" to "specialized chips". Amin Vahdat, head of Google's chip business, stated that "the future belongs to specialization", as major tech giants are breaking the computing power bottleneck by developing high-cost-performance ASIC chips and launching extremely low-cost lightweight intelligent models. Meanwhile, although US voters rejected data center measures in 40 out of 41 recent local referendums, and the Democrats who took power after the midterm elections are attempting to control new high-energy-consuming projects, tech giants are circumventing grid approval bottlenecks through vertical integration methods such as building their own gas power plants, directly igniting a short squeeze across the entire AI infrastructure supply chain.

Last night, Anthropic faced a critical IPO test. The company released its next-generation flagship models Claude Fable 5.2 (for all users with enhanced security) and Claude Mythos 5.2 (for audited institutions) on Monday, improving output speed by 30% and supporting 2.5 times speed mode while reducing standard input/output prices by 20% to $8 and $40 per million tokens, respectively. In tests, 1,000 Fable intelligent agents completed the formal proof of Fermat's Last Theorem in just 30 hours.

Despite facing skepticism over a Q3 quarter-on-quarter growth slowdown from 144% to 47% and a single-quarter net loss of $23.291 billion (due to $5 billion in computing power procurement and $89.54 billion in long-term infrastructure commitments), and the urgent need to update materials to bankers due to errors in the filing data, the company still plans to launch its roadshow as early as Tuesday.

Backed by over 20 banks including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, the IPO plans to issue approximately 867 million Class A shares, with a price range set at $70 to $80 per share, raising up to $69.3 billion to $100 billion, aiming to debut on Nasdaq next Thursday or Friday under the code "ANT". Due to the previous day's Nasdaq losing $2.5 trillion in value and OpenAI's funding falling short of expectations, potential investors have significantly lowered Anthropic's target valuation from $2 trillion months ago and $1.5 trillion a week ago, to a range of $1.1 trillion to $1.3 trillion. Renaissance Capital Senior Strategist Matt Kennedy stated that although a VIX panic index above 25 usually forces companies to delay their IPOs, Anthropic's unique size, combined with the current market recovery, will allow it to lock in expected returns through discounted pricing, becoming the ultimate test of the public market's true appetite for high-capital expenditure AI assets.

Specific Project Actions and Stock Price Fluctuations:

• AMD Soars 13.26%: Oppenheimer upgraded it to "Outperform", while the company announced that its fifth-generation EPYC server processors combined with Infinity Guard security technology officially provide host infrastructure for Google's newly released TPU 8tx system, currently securing contracts with over 10 global hyperscale cloud service providers and cutting-edge AI laboratories.
• SpaceX Rises 5.81%: Despite facing threats from Democratic Congressman Robert Garcia and Senator Elizabeth Warren to investigate it after taking over Congress in January, as well as resistance from Texas's incoming Democratic Governor Gina Hinojosa regarding data center regulations, Musk still increased investments against the trend. According to the hearing notice for the Starbase City, SpaceX plans to invest $24 billion in building local gas power plants and supercomputing facilities, with the project scheduled for tax relief review on December 9. Additionally, SpaceX is achieving vertical integration of the "gas power generation + liquefied methane rocket fuel" full industry chain by hiring natural gas traders and building gas pipelines in Florida, aiming to completely bypass the years-long queue for access to the Texas main power grid.
• Eli Lilly Rises 4.28%, Vir Soars 11.75%: The US FDA requires all GLP-1 weight loss drugs (including Eli Lilly's Mounjaro/Zepbound and Novo Nordisk's Ozempic/Wegovy) to add a risk warning for rare eye disease NAION (non-arteritic anterior ischemic optic neuropathy, which can cause permanent blindness, with an incidence rate of 6.4 cases per 100,000 person-years in the treatment group) to their labels, and both Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have stepped in to reassure the market. However, Eli Lilly announced a significant positive development on the same day, stating that its once-daily oral weight loss drug Foundayo reduced sleep apnea interruption events by up to 44% in Phase III trials, with plans to apply for approval by the end of the year, completely overshadowing the negative impact of the label warning. Meanwhile, biotech stock Vir surged due to the success of its chronic hepatitis B combination therapy in Phase III trials (with a 79% rate of viral RNA negativity at 48 weeks).
• Semiconductor and AI Hardware Sectors Surge Across the Board: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index soared 6.85% (with Nvidia being the only stock to close lower), Broadcom surged 8.78%, TSMC rose 3.51%, Intel increased 5.49%, and Marvell Technology jumped 9.49%; in the AI computing power leasing and server sector, CoreWeave, which signed a multi-year Blackwell GPU agreement with UK autonomous driving company Wayve, rose 5.56%, NEBIUS increased by about 5%, Dell rose 6.4%, and Oracle gained 2.7%.
• Storage Chips and Optical Communication Sectors Soared: In the optical communication sector, Coherent skyrocketed 16.79%, Astera Labs surged over 13%, Lumentum rose 10.69%, Credo increased over 10%, and Corning rose 9.25%; in the storage sector, Seagate Technology and Western Digital both surged nearly 10%, Micron Technology rose 6.25%, SanDisk increased 6.16%, and SK Hynix rose 5.5%.
• AI Power Infrastructure Sector Boomed Collectively: The Senate's advancement of data center approval reforms, coupled with Musk's push for vertical integration of gas power plants, has led the market to bet that the logic of "the end of computing power is energy" will continue to be realized. Bloom Energy surged 11.91%, Ferguson rose 11.22%, Vertiv Holdings jumped 9.63%, GE Vernova, which secured a 16.5 MW onshore wind turbine and a 20-year service order, rose 7.13%, and Eaton increased by about 5%.

Performance of the Tech Giants (Mag 7) (Wande Technology's Mag 7 Index closed up 1.34%, with six rising and one falling):

• Nvidia Falls 4.27% Alone: Jensen Huang is embroiled in a federal court class action lawsuit in California, accused of failing to disclose personal relationships with executives and potential national security risks to business reputation; Huang has withdrawn from two major AI summit discussions at Anthropic and ElevenLabs. Even though Trump has voiced support for Huang, stating he is "an upright person and will be fine" and confirming that the FBI is involved in the investigation, it still could not prevent panic selling that pushed the stock down nearly 9% at one point.
• Tesla Rises 5.54%: Musk confirmed that due to the high opportunity cost of manufacturing complexity, the Cybertruck, which has only achieved 10% of planned production capacity over the past three years, will cease production and refund deposits in about eight months, freeing up the Texas factory production line to fully expand production of the Cybercab autonomous taxi; meanwhile, the Fremont factory has initiated early production of the Optimus humanoid robot, with a planned annual output of one million units (with an efficiency five times that of a regular person, and costs reduced from $30,000 to $20,000), with plans to deliver it in a "rental-only" model by the end of 2027.
• Meta Rises 5.12%: Officially launched the lightest and most efficient model Muse Ember, designed for high-frequency tool calls and batch file processing, charging only $0.1 and $0.5 per million input/output tokens, significantly reducing corporate AI operating costs.
• Apple Rises 2.43%: Successfully completed a $7.5 billion bond issuance underwritten by Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, etc. (including $1.25 billion floating rate bonds and $6.25 billion fixed rate bonds, with a maximum coupon rate of 5.35% maturing in 2036), boosting low-cost cash flow.
• Google Rises 1.18%: Announced the expansion of its eighth-generation TPU product line, launching the TPU 8tx with hardware-level encryption isolation supported by AMD chips (halving inference latency), and the TPU 8i Max with dual-chip packaging, doubling computing power and HBM bandwidth (focusing on ultra-long context and multi-agent). With about a 30% price advantage, Google's TPU has secured nearly a hundred major clients, including Apple, Meta, Oracle, and Anthropic, with OpenAI also planning to procure, directly launching an attack on Nvidia's core territory.
• Amazon Rises 2.94%, Microsoft Rises 2.75%: Benefiting from expectations of lower costs in AI applications and short covering in the market.

After-Hours/Night Market Focus Stocks:

• Rocket Lab Rises 10.91%, Then Plummets Nearly 7% After Hours: After-hours, it reported a 73% year-on-year increase in Q3 revenue to $268 million (exceeding expectations of $257.9 million), with operating cash flow turning positive at $7.2 million, and backlogged orders surged 52% to a record $3.57 billion (including nearly $1 billion in new launch contracts, with overwhelming shareholder support for the acquisition of Iridium); however, the company announced that the first flight of its flagship medium rocket Neutron has been postponed to "no earlier than 2027", leading to a large sell-off after hours by investors who rushed in during the day.
• AST SpaceMobile Rises 14.1%, Then Slightly Dips About 1% After Hours: After-hours, it reported Q3 revenue of $42.3 million (up from $14.74 million in the same period last year), with a loss of $0.44 per share, holding $3.2 billion in ample cash and receiving $1 billion from Japan's Rakuten J-LEO agreement and $1.2 billion in non-dilutive funding support from a US quasi-government agency; the company maintains its full-year revenue guidance of $150 million to $200 million, announcing that the next-generation ASIC chip will increase bandwidth by ten times, aiming to produce six satellites per month by December, with a goal of having 45 satellites in orbit by mid-2027 and launching its self-developed 20-ton dedicated rocket Blacklift to support its high stock price.

Upcoming Focus:

November 10 (Tuesday)

• 13:30 TSMC October Revenue Report: The hardest core high-frequency verification of global AI computing power demand, directly affecting Nvidia and the sentiment of the entire US semiconductor sector for the day.
• US-Russia-Ukraine Abu Dhabi Trilateral Talks (Continuing until the 11th): Working-level negotiations begin; if substantial progress is made in releasing ceasefires or European security frameworks beyond prisoner exchanges, oil, gold, military, and European energy stocks will face repricing; on the same day, Republican members of Congress will hold internal leadership elections, starting a 55-day "lame duck session" legislative battle after the elections.
• 21:30 US October CPI: The market expects both overall and core CPI to rise 0.3% month-on-month (previous values were overall year-on-year 3.7%, core 2.6%); prior to this, at 21:15, the US ADP employment change for the week will be announced, along with the October NFIB small business confidence index and the New York Fed's one-year inflation expectations. As the last CPI before the December interest rate meeting, if the reading is strong, it will solidify the probability of a rate hike in December above 80%, boosting the dollar and US bond yields while amplifying selling pressure on AI growth stocks.
• Federal Reserve Officials' Intensive Statements: 17:00 Federal Reserve Governor Waller will speak; 22:35 2026 voting member and Dallas Fed President Logan will speak; the next day at 02:30 Kansas Fed President Schmid will speak; the next day at 07:30 Philadelphia Fed President Harker will speak. Focus on the attitude changes of core officials before and after the CPI release.
• US 10-Year Treasury Auction: The Treasury will auction $42 billion in 10-year Treasury bonds, testing whether the 10-year Treasury yield can stabilize around 4.85%---4.9%, with the auction results directly impacting technology stock valuation models.
• Key Earnings Reports: In pre-market, focus on Amprius, D-Wave Quantum, Sea, Vodafone; in after-hours, focus on CoreWeave (which fell sharply after the election and CDS hit a new high, focusing on data center orders under state-level regulation, grid cost burden, and financing pressure), Firefly Aerospace, Rigetti Computing.

November 11 (Wednesday)

• US Earnings Reports: In pre-market, focus on Applied Aerospace & Defense, RUM Group; in after-hours, focus on Corteva, Ainos.