What makes HYPE likely to reach $128 without relying on a crypto bull market?

Non-crypto trading now accounts for one-third, with global share replacing the crypto cycle as the core of pricing.

Written by: DCo

Compiled by: Saoirse, Foresight News

Hyperliquid is gradually evolving into a comprehensive trading platform, with one-third of its trading volume no longer coming from cryptocurrencies. We estimate that if this trend continues, and cryptocurrency trading volume returns to bull market levels, while Hyperliquid captures a small share of the global index futures, commodity futures, and stock trading markets, what value HYPE would correspond to.

• In October, non-crypto trading accounted for 30% of Hyperliquid's total trading volume; on October 27, it reached 40%, peaking at 51% in July.
• Correspondingly, the global traditional financial market is projected to reach $740 trillion in 2025, with an average annual growth rate of about 6%, expected to reach $934 trillion by 2029. Each 1% share of this market in 2029 corresponds to $9.3 trillion in trading volume, equivalent to 3.3 times Hyperliquid's current total trading volume.
• Our baseline scenario: by 2029, cryptocurrency trading volume increases to three times the current level; capturing 3% of this continuously expanding global market, with an overall fee rate of 0.006%; USDC yield falling to 3.6%; HIP-4 generating $100 million in revenue. Revenue will grow from the current $944 million to $4.91 billion by 2029.
• Discounted at a 20% rate, using the remaining 890 million HYPE as the base, under a 40x revenue multiple, the target price for HYPE is $128.
• In an optimistic scenario (capturing 5% market share, 40x multiple), the corresponding unit price is $165; compared to our report published in March, even though the token base used in this calculation is nearly three times that of the initial, the optimistic target price is still higher than the previous $124.
• Nowadays, the influence of capturing traditional financial market share has surpassed the crypto bull and bear cycles. Using a 25x multiple for estimation: tripling cryptocurrency trading volume can only drive HYPE's unit price up by about $30; while increasing market share from 1% to 5% can boost the unit price by about $48.
• The biggest risk comes from transaction fees. If traditional financial business fees drop to CME levels, under a 30x multiple, the target price in the baseline scenario will fall to $66.

Breaking out of the crypto bubble

For years, the trading market in the crypto industry has primarily served users within the circle. Hyperliquid may be the first platform to break this barrier, opening its trading infrastructure to a much larger pool of external users. We have already seen signs: traders have traded on Hyperliquid during the escalation of the US-Iran situation and the Tesla Roadster launch event, betting on market direction.

This shift in trading behavior means we need to reassess its valuation logic. Even capturing a small portion of the global trading market, compared to Hyperliquid's current scale, is quite considerable, but the transaction fees corresponding to such traditional financial trading volumes will be much lower.

A year ago, Hyperliquid only supported cryptocurrency trading. HIP-3 changed that. Stocks, indices, commodities, and foreign exchange can now share the same margin account with Bitcoin perpetual contracts, and traders are indeed trading these products.

Statistics on Hyperliquid's monthly trading volume changes from September 2025 to October 2026

The proportion of non-crypto trading volume rose from 0 in September 2025 to 51% in July 2026, stabilizing around one-third thereafter; on October 27, 40% of the platform's total daily trading volume of $7.2 billion came from non-crypto categories. Individual stocks are currently the largest non-crypto trading category, with trading volume exceeding that of indices and commodities.

This part of the business is not affected by Bitcoin's price fluctuations, which is why we value it separately.

Hyperliquid has not yet experienced a large-scale bull market

We often say that Hyperliquid has not yet welcomed a bull market, and data supports this statement to some extent; a more precise interpretation would be more meaningful.

Binance's monthly trading volume since 2020

We retrieved Binance's public API data since 2019, summarizing its spot, USDT-based, and coin-based contract trading volumes. Binance's historical peak trading volume occurred in May 2021, reaching $4.3 trillion, at which point Hyperliquid had not yet launched. After Hyperliquid's launch, the market experienced three peaks in trading volume: March 2024, November-December 2024 (approximately $3.7 trillion each month), and October 2025 ($3.5 trillion).

However, during most of the peak phases, Hyperliquid's scale was still small. During the hot market in 2024, its cryptocurrency futures trading volume only accounted for 2%-6% of Binance's; it wasn't until February 2025 that the proportion broke 10% and maintained that level.

The ratio of Hyperliquid's cryptocurrency trading volume to Binance's cryptocurrency futures trading volume

Currently, Binance's cryptocurrency trading volume is only 38% of the peak in December 2024, and the spot trading volume is only 16% of the peak in May 2021. Therefore, Hyperliquid's current annualized trading revenue of $781 million is at the bottom of the cycle. Binance's peak monthly trading volume is 2.4-3 times the current level, which is also the source of our baseline assumption that "cryptocurrency trading volume will increase to three times the current level by 2029." Hyperliquid has yet to experience a full year of maintaining such high trading volumes.

Entering mainstream markets, fee pressure

If Hyperliquid wants to capture a few percentage points of share from the global futures and stock trading markets, its fee pricing must benchmark against established exchanges, which it currently cannot achieve.

The difference in fee retention income for Hyperliquid's crypto perpetual, HIP-3 growth mode products, and CME stock index futures for every $1 million nominal principal traded.

After deducting rebates and discounts, the protocol can retain about 0.037% of the trading volume of crypto perpetual contracts. Under HIP-3, the products are in growth mode, and the protocol retains only 0.0037%. CME's stock index business revenue for the third quarter of 2026 is only 0.0004% of the nominal trading amount. In other words, even with Hyperliquid's discounted traditional financial fees, they are still about 9 times that of CME.

Competition is already at the forefront. Binance launched 229 TradFi perpetual contracts this year, with a daily trading volume of about $13.4 billion; while Hyperliquid only reached $2.3 billion. The growth mode has no set deadline; the team has only added a regulatory switch to adjust fees for specific markets.

Our baseline scenario assumption: starting in 2027, the overall fee rate for non-crypto business will be 0.006%. This rate is composed of about 7% of non-crypto trading volume switching to the regular fee rate (protocol retaining 0.037%), while the remaining trading volume continues to stay in growth mode. This rate is still 15 times that of CME and is the easiest assumption to break in the entire model. At the end of the article, we demonstrate the valuation changes when the fee rate drops to CME levels.

Goal: $4 billion annual revenue

We estimate four sources of revenue and sum them up, with 99% of total revenue allocated to the Assistance Fund, used for repurchasing HYPE and reducing circulating supply.

1. Cryptocurrency trading revenue = cryptocurrency trading volume × cryptocurrency fee. We assume trading volume grows from $1.98 trillion annually to three times that by 2029 ($5.9 trillion), maintaining the current fee rate of 0.037%.
2. Non-crypto trading revenue = Hyperliquid's share of the global market × non-crypto fee, with an overall rate of 0.006% starting in 2027. The global market is projected to reach $740 trillion in 2025, with an annual growth rate of 6% (this growth rate is consistent with the global stock market growth since 2015: $114 trillion in 2015, $204 trillion in 2025), reaching $934 trillion by 2029.
3. According to AQAv2 rules, 90% of the USDC reserves' yield on the Hyperliquid platform will go to the Assistance Fund. The first dividend of 30 days yields $14.58 million, equivalent to an annualized $177 million, corresponding to this year's $5.1 billion reserves and a 3.9% yield. We assume that by 2029, the yield will fall to 3.6%, matching the Fed's median forecast for that year. The reserve scale will grow in sync with cryptocurrency trading volume and the USDC deposited by new traders; we assume that new traders will deposit funds equivalent to 0.05% of their annual trading volume.
4. The HIP-4 prediction market launched in May, and we estimate that by 2029, this business will generate $100 million in revenue.

Hyperliquid's revenue forecast under the baseline scenario

Total revenue is expected to grow 5.2 times, reaching $4.91 billion. Of the additional $3.97 billion in revenue, nearly two-thirds comes from non-crypto transactions: $1.65 billion from non-crypto fees, $756 million from USDC interest, and $100 million from HIP-4.

What Expectations Are Already Priced In?

Using a 20% discount rate, we calculate the present value of the 2029 revenue (consistent with the discount rate used in previous reports). The present value of the $4.91 billion revenue in 2029 is $2.84 billion. We then apply different revenue multiples and divide by the remaining HYPE token supply in 2029. Calculation basis: total supply of 998.8 million tokens, minus the 48.3 million tokens held by the aid fund, and further reduced by the tokens repurchased and burned using 99% of revenue from 2027 to 2029. The repurchase price will gradually increase from the current $77 to the target price in 2029 under the corresponding scenario; the higher the multiple, the fewer tokens are consumed in the repurchase: approximately 87 million tokens will be burned at a 25x multiple, 76 million at 30x, and 61 million at 40x.

Target prices for HYPE tokens corresponding to different revenue multiples and market shares, assuming crypto trading volume increases to three times the current level.

For example, with a 3% market share and a 40x multiple. In 2029: crypto trading revenue is $2.2 billion (5.94 trillion × 0.037%), non-crypto trading revenue is $1.68 billion (3% of 28 trillion from a 934 trillion market × 0.006%), USDC interest is $935 million (28.9 billion reserves × 3.6% × 90%), and HIP-4 contributes $100 million, totaling $4.91 billion. Discounting at 20% over three years (divided by 1.2×1.2×1.2=1.728), the present value is $2.84 billion. A 40x valuation corresponds to a fully diluted market cap of $113.8 billion. Under this multiple, approximately 61 million HYPE tokens will be repurchased and burned by 2029, leaving 89 million tokens, resulting in a unit price of $128.

HYPE pricing calculation: Assuming crypto trading volume reaches three times the current level, a mere 0.5% global market share can support a price of $81 at a 40x revenue valuation, with the green area representing prices above the current price on October 27.

It is essential to remember this underlying assumption: the vast majority of non-crypto trading volume will continue to grow.

From another perspective: the current price of $77 corresponds to pricing expectations of: a 0.5% share requiring a 38x revenue multiple, a 3% share needing 23x, a 5% share needing 18x, and a 10% share needing only about 10x. CME has a P/E ratio of 25x, while ICE is at 23x. In other words, the current market pricing roughly corresponds to a market share of 2%-3% at traditional exchange valuation levels; or a lower share combined with growth premiums.

Under the assumption of a 25x revenue valuation, comparing HYPE prices corresponding to different global market shares and different multiples of crypto trading volume, tripling crypto trading volume and increasing market share can drive up token prices.

The weight of market share has now surpassed the crypto cycle. At a 25x multiple, tripling crypto trading volume increases the HYPE unit price by about $30; increasing the share from 1% to 5% raises the unit price by about $48. Even if crypto trading volume remains unchanged, to sustain a price of $77 at a 25x multiple, a market share of 5% is required.

Market Logic Has Changed, and the Valuation Framework Must Change Accordingly

In March, when the HYPE price was $37, we used a 20x revenue multiple for 2028 to conduct a four-scenario valuation: pessimistic scenario $60 (0.01% of the average daily $17.4 trillion market), baseline scenario $72 (0.10%), optimistic scenario $124 (0.50%), and extremely optimistic scenario $190 (1.00%), corresponding to a revenue range of $1.4 billion to $4.6 billion in 2028. Seven months later, the trading volume of HIP-3 reached $870 billion, exceeding the $640 billion corresponding to the 0.10% share in the baseline scenario at that time, completing about a quarter of the optimistic target. Below is a comparison of the data from the March model and the current model.

Comparison of HYPE valuations in March and the current four scenarios: although the total token supply has nearly tripled, the optimistic scenario target price has been raised from $124 to $165.

If we continue to use the earlier version and only value the circulating tokens, the baseline scenario unit price would be about $280, not $98. Another core parameter for this adjustment is the fee: in March, we assumed HIP-3 would share 0.05% with the protocol (the rate before the growth model was launched), while this model takes 0.006%. The pessimistic scenario valuation is lower than in March because we switched to using fully diluted total supply (FDV) instead of just looking at circulating market cap.

Variables Affecting Valuation

Upside Positive Factors

• If we do not use the fully diluted total supply but value based on actual circulating tokens, the unit price would roughly double. The fully diluted total supply includes tokens that may never enter circulation in the future.
• The discount rate is lowered from 20% to 15%, raising the baseline scenario valuation from $98 to $111 at a 30x multiple.
• Hyperliquid currently retains 0.18% of annual trading volume as USDC collateral, while CME only retains 0.01%. If traditional financial traders also get used to keeping funds on the platform like crypto traders, USDC interest income will be much higher than our assumptions.
• Each $1 option premium can drive $10-$20 in perpetual contract hedging trading volume. Native options have not yet launched on HyperCore, so this increment is not included in the model.

Our supply assumption: by 2029, all pending release tokens will enter circulation: currently circulating 302 million tokens, 238 million held by core contributors, and 410 million marked for future release by Hyperliquid, minus repurchased and burned tokens (approximately 76 million at a 30x multiple). If only half of the pending release tokens circulate by 2029, the supply would be about 683 million tokens, raising the baseline price from $98 to $125 at a 30x multiple; if these tokens do not circulate at all, the supply would be 493 million tokens, resulting in a unit price of $173.

Calculating the HYPE price under a 30x revenue valuation in 2029 for different volumes of unlocked circulation: the less circulation, the higher the token valuation; when only half of the pending release tokens enter the market, the baseline price rises from $98 to $125.

Downside Risk Factors

• If non-crypto business fees drop to CME's 0.0004%, the baseline scenario valuation at a 30x multiple would fall from $98 to $66; if all varieties remain in growth mode, it would be $85. Crypto perpetual contract fees also face competitive pressure: Lighter has introduced zero fees, and Binance's traditional financial perpetual contracts are six times the size of Hyperliquid, making competition very fierce.
• The baseline scenario assumes that by 2029, crypto trading volume and fee income will average three times the current level, corresponding to $98 at a 30x multiple. If it only reaches 1.5 times the current level, the baseline price at a 30x multiple would be $71; if trading volume remains flat, it would be $62.
• USDC interest is a source of the $935 million revenue in 2029, making U.S. interest rates crucial. For every 100 basis points decrease in interest rates, this income shrinks by more than a quarter; at an interest rate of 2.6%, the baseline price would be $92.

All calculations in this article are based on the interactive valuation model HYPE valuation model, and all parameters can be modified by the user.